DEMOGRAPHICS ARE NOT DESTINY

As Nicola Sturgeon 'waits' for a diverse pro-yes majority to emerge, the data suggests demographics aren't destiny and Scottish Labour is posed to make inroads into the SNP's electoral coalition

It has become something of a cliché for contemporary Scottish nationalists that “demographics are destiny”. The argument maintains that time is on the pro-Independence movement’s side. That an increasingly diversifying younger electorate - which is instinctively more pro-independence than older voters will shift the political dial. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has previously explained that this is fundamental to her whole strategy for obtaining independence.

The First Minister speaking to the Financial Times (FT) maintained that all she - and by extension the wider pro-independence movement has to do is simply wait. But assuming future voting habits based on demographics of age is a risky business. While it might be pleasing to pro-independence supporters, the truth is it’s a fundamentally flawed argument.

Nicola Sturgeon told the FT

“I’ve got democracy on my side ... if they think it’s about playing a waiting game, I’ve probably got time on my side as well.

"You look at the demographics of the support for independence – well, I’m not sure that’s going to get you out of this conundrum.”¹

This argument has become accepted, even among centre-left ‘no’ voters, that it barely registered on the media radar last year when she said it. Yet if we more closely examine the actual age makeup of the 2014 ‘Yes’ vote, we find it hard to support the claim that '“playing a waiting game” will inevitably mean “the demographics of the support for independence” will organically push a managerialist SNP over the top.

The youngest were not the most enthusiastic ‘yes’ voters in 2014

While it is true that older people were more reluctant to vote ‘yes’ in 2014 than younger people, the truth is somewhat more complex than that. For one thing, the youngest age bracket in the September 2014 referendum vote were not the most enthusiastic ‘Yessers’.

YouGov did a poll on September 18 2014, in which they contacted a sum total of 2,500 interviewees (so a healthy sample size). The findings proved close to the actual result, predicting ‘No’ would win by 54% (whereas the ‘No’ side actually won by 55%).

That YouGov poll found only 49% of those aged 16-24 voted ‘Yes’. In actual fact, the key age brackets driving the ‘Yes’ vote back in 2014 were those aged 25-39 (55% voting ‘yes’)².

Ashcroft also conducting a poll at the time analysing the age makeup of the ‘Yes’ voters at the time. According to the Ashcroft poll (sample size 2,047), the youngest age bracket was not as enthusiastic ‘yes’ as opposed to those in their late 20s at the time.

While Ashcroft - unlike YouGov - found a majority of 16-24 year olds backing ‘Yes’, it came in at only 52%; whereas ‘Yes’ support significantly higher among 25-34 year olds at 59%³.

It would be helpful for Ms Sturgeon to recall this data from 2014, and also retain the caveat by Professor John Curtice. At the time when writing analysis on who voted ‘Yes’, he warned it would be wrong to make any “definitive statement” about how that newly enfranchised youngest age bracket voted. Given the polling, and given the importance of not reaching definitive conclusions, I find it curious as to why the First Minister seems so certain that “time is on my side”.

The “demographics is destiny” argument can only hold for the SNP if the youngest age brackets actually are inherently more inclined to supporting independence. But based on the data we do have, what we can see are patterns where the youngest were markedly less enthusiastic back in 2014 for independence as opposed to those in their late 20s and 30s at the time.

‘Yes’ to ‘No’ switchers are more certain of their new position than vice-versa

Checking the data more recently also reveals that there appears to be heightened certainty among those voters who have since the referendum switched their vote from ‘Yes’ to ‘No’ than those going the opposite direction.

According to the Scottish Election Study (SES) which analysed the Holyrood 2021 election there is greater “conviction and commitment” on the ‘No’ side as opposed to the ‘yes’ side, even while it remains very high on both sides of the debate.

“The first thing to say – surprising no one who has been living in Scotland since 2014 – is that conviction levels on both sides are very high. SES 2021 respondents were asked after the May election about the certainty of their voting intention in a second referendum and given a scale with no fewer than 21 points to choose from. Two out of three respondents chose one of the extreme points – ‘would definitely vote Yes’ (29%) or ‘definitely vote No’ (37%) – and most of the others were close to these poles. This already shows an advantage for the pro-union side – of which more later – but it also demonstrates that both sides have a very solid base of support.”⁴

It is unsurprising that the constitutional debate has become so polarised and entrenched, but what is interesting is the discovery that the ‘definitely no’ is coming out ahead of ‘definitely yes’. This immediately suggests greater conviction and entrenchment among ‘no ‘ voters, indicating heightened motivation among those determined to oppose independence.

But the SES gets far more interesting when it checks out the demographical changes and checks out the switching which has happened between ‘yes’ and ‘no’ since 2014.

The SES data reveals that while there has been an “appreciable shift to Yes” since 2014, this is due to generational replacement. But wait, hold on, don’t go falling for the “demographics is destiny” line just yet. It’s more complicated than that, always keep your eyes peeled for the nuance.

While the polling clearly indicates a generational shift has taken place, as newer entrants into the electorate replace older ones,

“The changing of minds has moved equal shares of voters in either direction: 16.4% of 2014 Yes voters now support No, while 16.6% have gone in the other direction.”⁵

One of the greatest flaws with the political argument that “demographics are destiny” is that it assumes people never change their minds as they get older. We know they do, and in the case of Scotland and the constitutional debate they have been switching at very similar percentiles.

SES goes on to note that “the No side appears to have an advantage in terms of how zealous its new converts are”. So we know that back in 2014 16-24 year olds were not the key driving force behind the ‘Yes’ vote. Now we can add to that and say that while generational change is helping the ‘Yes’ side more generally, those younger people growing up and changing their minds since 2014 is giving the ‘No’ side the key edge going forward.

Put simply, SES finds that while 16.6% have grown up since 2014 and switched over to supporting ‘Yes’, those 16.4% going over to ‘No’ are more “zealous”. To quote the SES directly,

“58% of Yes to No switchers consider themselves certain to vote for their new preference versus 40% of No to Yes convert”⁶

Clearly the First Minister and the wider ‘Yes’ movement have much more work to do in actually retaining their new converts, unlike the ‘No’ side. Those younger age groups may be instinctively more pro-Independence than the older age brackets they are replacing, but their inclination toward ‘Yes’ is clearly much softer than many realise. Additionally, the pro-UK side is finding it easier to ‘lock in’ those they are winning over from ‘Yes’ since 2014.

None of this suggests that Nicola Sturgeon is correct to say “I’ve probably got time on my side”.

Fraying at the edges: tentative signs Scottish Labour is beginning to win over some ‘Yes’ supporters

Another death knell stabbing into the chest-cavity of the “demographics is destiny” argument is the Scottish Labour recovery in Scotland. It is important to acknowledge straight away that the Scottish Labour recovery up until now has clearly been a result of a realignment among the ‘no’/Unionist camp in Scotland. Those opposing Independence are shifting back to preferring Scottish Labour to be the champion to defend the Union. But beneath this reality, there are tentative early signs of fraying at the edges of the nationalist Scottish block vote.

Sir John Curtice provides some helpful insight, noting that “the proportion of 2019 SNP voters that have switched to Labour is, at 8%”. An initial reaction may be to scoff at only 8% switching from voting SNP to Scottish Labour since GE2019, but by doing so you miss something. That 8% is actually marginally up, it has previously been stuck at 6% since the 2019 General Election…until very recently. In short, Anas Sarwar has been able to marginally win over 2% of SNP 2019 voters in the brief time he has been leader, and has done so without discussing the constitution at all.

One reason why he has been able to begin to win over some 2019 SNP voters is undoubtedly due to how divided the ‘Yes’ side of politics has actually become. While the SNP may weigh in their constituency support nationally at around 45%, beneath this there is significant division.

Thanks to Savanta ComRes, we know that a significant 23% of current Yes supporters do not support fighting the next UK election on the sole issue of independence⁷. Equally interesting is the 25% of 2019 SNP voters who do not support fighting the next UK general election as a ‘de facto’ independence referendum.

The same SavantaComRess poll also finds that a significant 33% of 2014 Yes’ voters do not back the First Minister’s plan for the next Westminster election, should she fail at the Supreme Court.

Assuming she wins at the Supreme Court (unlikely), and she can somehow hold a new referendum on independence next year, there remains significant opposition to her from within her own camp.

The same SavantaComRes poll reveals 29% of those who voted ‘Yes’ in 2019 oppose even having a referendum next year, full stop. Even among 2019 SNP voters there are those who simply refuse to get behind the First Minister’s preferred timeline of a referendum next year, with 23% saying there should not be a referendum next year.

All of this churn and scepticism about timing and tactics within the ‘Yes’ side of politics is beginning to happen at the right time for Anas Sarwar, and through him Scottish Labour.

Perhaps this is why we discover the proportion of support for Scottish Labour coming from those who voted ‘Yes’ in 2014 has also increased very recently. Up until now only 12% of those who had backed independence in 2014 were going to vote Scottish Labour, but this has increased by 4 percentile points to 16%.

So, if Scottish Labour is beginning to win over more support from those who backed the SNP in 2019 and more support from those who backed ‘Yes’ in 2014, all while rediscovering its role as the lead choice for ‘No’ voters…things may be getting challenging soon for Nicola Sturgeon.

Demographics are destiny? Not if significant proportions of your own side of the argument disagree with your timing, tactics and priorities. Not if there are early signs you’re iron-fist lock on ‘nationalist Scotland’ is for the first time since 2014 beginning to be challenged by a resurgent Scottish Labour.

Conclusions

Scotland has changed since 2014, and is continuing to change. Younger age groups are more favourably inclined toward ‘Yes’ than older age brackets; but beneath this the truth is more complex.

The youngest age brackets in voting in 2014 were not the driving force underpinning the ‘Yes’ vote in the referendum. And as the electorate slowly changes with time and generational change, we’re seeing switching between ‘Yes/No’ which gives the key edge to the ‘No’ side of the isle.

If it's a question of motivation, conviction and certainties those who voted ‘Yes’ in 2014 but now moved across to ‘No’ are far less likely to go back to the pro-Independence side. The same cannot be said for those former ‘No’ voters, who are far less entrenched in their new position.

Furthermore, there is a very real fragility to the SNP’s electoral coalition. Disagreements and divisions concerning timing, tactics and strategy risk opening a door to a Scottish Labour which has vanquished the Scottish Tory challenge. Anas Sarwar is a marketable political figure, showing early signs of being able to win over to Labour SNP/Yes voters (but these are still early days).

Demographics really aren’t destiny folks, it’s a line peddled by those too intellectually lazy to continually seek to win hearts and minds. As the First Minister sits waiting for time to do the heavy lifting for her, those opposing independence are slowly winning the war for hearts and minds.

In 410AD sacred Rome was sacked by the barbarian horde led by Alaric, but Emperor Honorius simply played his harp. Rome was sacked for the first time in 800 years but the Western Emperor relaxed convinced time was on his side. After all…the idea of Rome was eternal…wasn’t it? The inertia, complacency and lazy assumptions of the First Minister is likely to doom her Independence cause, just like Honorius’s doomed Rome.

1. Matchett, Conor (2021, 7 Oct), ‘Nicola Sturgeon: 'Time is on my side' on Scottish independence referendum push’, The Scotsman, https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-time-is-on-my-side-on-scottish-independence-referendum-push-3410524

2. Curtice, Sir John (2014, 26 Sept), ‘So Who Voted Yes and Who Voted No?’, https://whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/voted-yes-voted/

3. Lord Ashcroft Polls (2014, 19 Sept), ‘How Scotland voted, and why’, https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/09/scotland-voted/

4. SES (2021, 18 June), ‘No in poll position: Holyrood 2021 explained - part 4’, Scottish Election Study, https://scottishelections.ac.uk/2021/06/18/no-in-pole-position-holyrood-2021-explained-part-four/

5. ibid

6. ibid

7. SavantaComRes (2022, October), ‘SCOTTISH POLITICAL TRACKER - OCTOBER 2022’, https://comresglobal.com/polls/scottish-political-tracker-october-2022/