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Perusing the SNP’s June 14th published paper ‘Independence in the modern world. Wealthier, happier, fairer: why not Scotland?’, it is hard not to be struck by its opacity. All too many of the central claims either obscure the factual economic realities faced by Scotland, or it engages in wish-thinking. In short, it is a serious case of a muddle meeting a guddle at pace, with the inevitable unfortunate outcome. But more, it is the stuff of the rambling obscurantist.

An immediate example of the muddle-headed, confused thinking exposed in the paper is the constant theme of ‘if we were independent then we would be like x’. The notion that independence would somehow allow us to become 'like Denmark’ or ‘like Austria’ etc is disingenuous. As Nicola Sturgeon’s own economics advisor, Professor Mark Blyth of international economics at the Watson Institute of Brown University in Rhode Island put it,

"No, you wouldn’t be Denmark. Denmark took 600 years to become Denmark.”1

The publication simply makes simplistic comparisons with ‘comparable countries’. At no point does this paper explain how we are supposedly getting from point A (the realities of Scotland upon independence) to B (where we want to end up). The sheer lack of specificity is remarkable. Big questions such as serious in depth discussions of business models for example is absent. And what precisely is ‘B’? If listening to the SNP since 2007 is any guide they are proposing a celtic tiger economy where business taxes are as low as Ireland but social service spending is as high as Denmark, Finland etc. But this cakeism simply exposes the confused state of play being presented.

The paper argues that

“The focus of this paper is on the future and on how to strengthen Scotland's economic and social performance (which would of course also be the most effective way to improve Scotland's fiscal position). The success of comparable countries – all independent, some of a similar size to Scotland – point the way forward.”2

How to strengthen Scotland’s economic and social performance? Great. It is a conversation badly needed given the appalling state of Scotland’s contemporary economy. And what are Scotland’s central economic weaknesses? Let’s quickly recap some of them:

productivity stagnation for over 17 years
innovation as bad as 2008
tax and spending crisis3

So, we can expect the paper to dig deep into these three issues, given it is all about ‘the future’ and ‘how to strengthen Scotland’s economic and social performance’.

But no. The publication instead spends much of its time musing on how the UK is doing, and how the UK compares with X, Y, Z. And perhaps this is deliberate, given the central problem for the SNP is that independence simply does not help any of Scotland’s main economic challenges. Much better then to instead mimic the language of brexiteers and talk of taking back control of levers etc. Wax lyrical about how ~~Brussels~~ Westminster does not represent us and is not suitably democratic enough.

After all, the economic realities show, far from helping our economy independence would worsen things and fast. After all, voting for independence does not turn us magically into Denmark. We have our own economic realities that any serious prospectus on leaving the UK needs to contend with.

One would be Scottish exports realities. The fact is, prior to the pandemic, the rest of the UK (rUK) represented the single most important destination for Scottish exports.

These statistics come from the Scottish Government’s own website4. Two things to note. First, £52.0bn of exports value in 2019 represents 60% of all Scottish exports. Second, not only is rUK the single most important market for Scottish exporters, prior to the pandemic it was also the fastest growing. The change from 2018 to 2019 was +5% for Scottish exports headed to rUK. This means England, Wales and Northern Ireland are more important to Scottish exporters than the rest of the world, including the European Union single market.

Given these unarguable facts, how do we imagine independence will impact? Clearly independence with rUK outside the EU single market and customs union and iScotland aspiring to rejoin said arrangements this means a hard border with England. Customs checks, border patrols, two different systems of regulations and standards slowly differentiating over time. In short, independence means damaging 60% of all Scottish exports by erecting barriers to trade.

Even Nicola Sturgeon herself has been forced to contend with this reality, confessing

“I will be frank. I’ve said very clearly, there will be customs and regulatory issues on trade if we are in the single market”5

Now, building on all of this, let us return to the economic challenges facing Scotland that I previously outlined above. Let’s talk productivity. Ever heard of the ‘immigration surplus’?6 Well, what that means is immigration is a vital fuel for an economy. When new arrivals enter the labour force, they increase the productive capacity of the economy. We see GDP rise, and incomes rise; not just for the new immigrants but also for the native population.

Productive capacities are the productive resources, entrepreneurial capabilities and production linkages that if taken together determine a country's ability to produce goods and services that will help it grow and develop. So it actually matters folks.

Now, creating a border with England, Wales and Northern Ireland will not merely kick our exporters in the teeth, it will likely reduce the numbers of people from elsewhere in the UK coming to live and work in Scotland. And remember, independence means English, Welsh and N. Irish folk all become foreigners, re-categorised as immigrants. Visa obligations, customs posts all mean fewer of these economically vital immigrants from rUK entering Scotland.

Be under no illusions, there are vastly more people born in England, yet living and working in Scotland than any other non-Scottish born population. According to the 2011 census, approximately 459,000 English born people lived and contributed to Scotland7. Independence, a hard border means Scotland will likely face a decrease, not increase in the numbers of English born people moving to Scotland to live and work. That slow-down of immigration from elsewhere in the UK will hurt not help productivity. And as the numbers show, English-born people represent the largest non-Scottish born segment of our population, they are in effect our single most important source of immigration.

Remember, the immigration surplus’ argument. Immigration is the fuel of an economy, undertaking policies which will likely reduce the net flow of immigration from England into Scotland will damage productive capacity. It does not make sense.

Now, at no point does the SNP’s paper address any of this. It does not discuss why we’d be more likely to become Denmark if only we kick our exporters in the teeth and slash at our productive capacity. And you really should worry about this, especially given the ~~thoughtful and considered~~ contributions from some SNP MSPs…

Emma Harper (SNP, borders list) thinks that “jobs will be created if a border is created”

Representing Border @ITVBorderRB

'Jobs can be created if a border is created' @theSNP candidate Emma Harper says her party wants 'the softest of borders' between Scotland and England & it could create local jobs #indyref2 Galloway & West Dumfries candidates: itv.com/news/border/20…

The level of ignorance on display from MSPs such as Emma Harper would be funny, except as I have outlined, if she gets her way Scotland’s economy will be hurt not helped. Perhaps Ms Harper imagines all of the Scottish exporters put out of work can magically all be retrained as border guards?

Obscurantism is the practice of deliberately preventing the facts or full details of something from becoming known. The sight of a publication boasting independence making Scotland ‘Wealthier, happier, fairer’ whilst telling us nothing of note on borders, exports, immigration consequential is laughable. It is beyond the merely evasive, it transcends the opaque - it’s a wilful attempt to hide economic realities from the discussion. It’s obscurantist drivel of the lowest common denominator intermingling with the cheap populism of ‘lets be like Denmark’.

Wealthier, happier, fairer? Hardly.

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1

Kieran Andrew, (2021, 7 September), ‘Nicola Sturgeon adviser Mark Blyth ridicules plans for independence’, The Times, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeon-adviser-mark-blyth-ridicules-plans-for-independence-9w3w5kspz

2

ScotGov (2022, 14 June), ‘Independence in the modern world. Wealthier, happier, fairer: why not Scotland?’, https://www.gov.scot/publications/independence-modern-world-wealthier-happier-fairer-not-scotland/pages/2/

3

Dean Thomson (2022, 8 March), ‘Scotland’s economy has never been so mismanaged’, Think Scotland, https://thinkscotland.org/2022/03/scotlands-economy-has-never-been-so-mismanaged/

4

ScotGov (2021, 1 December), ‘Export statistics Scotland: 2019’, https://www.gov.scot/publications/export-statistics-scotland-2019/

5

Alastair Jamieson (2022, 15 June), ‘Nicola Sturgeon admits border checks will be among post-independence ‘issues’’, The Independent, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nicola-sturgeon-border-independence-scotland-b2100721.html

6

Pia Orrenius (2016), ‘Benefits of Immigration Outweigh the Costs’, Bush Centre, https://www.bushcenter.org/catalyst/north-american-century/benefits-of-immigration-outweigh-costs.html

7

Scotland’s Census (2021, 2 August), Country of birth, Scotland’s Census.gov https://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/census-results/at-a-glance/country-of-birth/

Dean M Thomson

WEALTHIER, HAPPIER, FAIRER?