WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT POVERTY
In the absence of serious policy change, the blight of Scottish child poverty will likely get worse
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ACCORDING to latest statistics the scourge of child poverty is getting worse in Scotland, and Scottish Government policies are failing to improve the situation.
The 2017 Scottish National Party manifesto pledged that their new Child Poverty Bill would eradicate child poverty, and condemned the Conservative government’s scrapping of income-based child poverty targets.
“The SNP Scottish Government has introduced a new Child Poverty Bill, following the Tory government’s decision to scrap income-based child poverty targets in the last Parliament. The new Bill introduces new Scotland-wide targets to eradicate child poverty”1
But latest data indicates that, despite the commitment, the incumbent Scottish Government has singularly failed to “eradicate child poverty”. In fact, it has presided over its growth, not diminution.
The SNP administration’s own statistics reveal that the proportion of children living in relative poverty in Scotland stood at 19% 2011-122. But that figure has consistently grown since then. It rose to 22% 2013/14, and 26% by 2015-163. So this completely shatters any excuses by Ms Sturgeon that the pandemic is responsible for the worsening child poverty figures. Fact is, the proportion of children living in relative poverty has been rising for more than a decade under this administration.
The Scottish Government’s interim target is to lower that 26% to 18% by 2023-24, but according to the the Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG) this is unlikely to materialise. In fact, CPAG reveal that on current trends the overall child poverty rate could actually worsen so badly it would reverse all progress made in the UK since the 1990s.
“Analysis by the Resolution Foundation suggests the Scottish child poverty rate will be 29% by 2023-24 - the highest rate in over twenty years. This would reverse the fall in child poverty observed in the UK since the late 1990s”4
And the CPAG are not alone in reaching this assessment. Their conclusion is mirrored by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which published analysis indicating the same sorry picture facing Scottish child poverty rates.5
Sadly the official government statistics also show a rise in absolute child poverty too. The proportion of children living in absolute poverty has risen from 20% in 2011-12 to 22% by 2017-186. Again, this is an increase recorded long before the pandemic came along and all under the incumbent SNP’s watch. Today the percentage of children in absolute poverty is 23% 2019-207.
What these facts demonstrate is an utter failure of Scottish Government policy over a prolonged period of time. Whatever the best intentions of SNP ministers past and present, the stubborn facts are that their policy options have failed to improve the picture.
There is a firmly established pattern of this SNP administration presiding over a depressing rise in child poverty. Again using the Scottish Government’s own statistics, we know that the proportion of children who have lived in relative poverty in three or more of the last four years rose too. It had stood at 14% 2010-11, but spiked up to 16% 2013-20168. But while it should be acknowledged that the figure for 2016-2020 has thankfully fallen to 10%, it still illustrates a lacklustre record in office.
From 2010-2017 it is abundantly clear that the incumbent party presided over horrendous worsening of child poverty rates across Scotland. Whether it is relative poverty, absolute poverty or the percentage of kids suffering relative poverty for three or more years - fact is on multiple measures things got worse.
And if we listen to CPAG, the IFS and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation - things are expected to get even worse in coming years. Even STV is reporting that Scotland will not hit target to reduce child poverty by 20309
The bottom line is easy to grasp: 1 in 4 kids in Scotland live in poverty, and unless there is a serious policy change this will get worse. But does anyone trust this incumbent government in Holyrood to change direction? Can it change? Or has it been hollowed out by years of unchallenged power, now merely engaging in inadequate managerialism?
Scotland urgently needs a policy rethink if we are to save our children from poverty, especially as households struggle to grapple with resurgent inflation and a worsening cost of living crisis.
SNP Manifesto, 2017, pg 32 https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/thesnp/pages/9544/attachments/original/1496320559/Manifesto_06_01_17.pdf?1496320559
Scottish Government, (2022, March 23) ‘Child poverty summary’, https://data.gov.scot/poverty/2022/cpupdate.html
Ibid
Child Poverty Action Group, ‘CHILD POVERTY IN SCOTLAND: THE FACTS’, https://cpag.org.uk/scotland/child-poverty/facts
Institute for Fiscal Studies, ‘Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: 2017–18 to 2021–22’, https://ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/comms/R136.pdf
Scottish Government, (2022, March 23) ‘Child poverty summary’, https://data.gov.scot/poverty/2022/cpupdate.html
Ibid
Ibid
STV (2022, March 16) ‘Scotland 'will not hit target to reduce child poverty by 2030'',https://news.stv.tv/scotland/scotland-will-not-hit-target-to-reduce-child-poverty-according-to-think-tank