TOM TAKES IT
Tom Tugendhat comes out ahead in the channel four leadership debate
The race to become Prime Minister entered a new phase tonight as the channel four leadership debate separated the wheat from the chaff.
In many ways tonight’s debate was Rishi Sunak’s to lose, and while he certainly succeeded in avoiding that fate, he clearly struggled to seal the deal in the eyes of both a critical Tory membership and the wider electorate in the country. At various times despite a slick professional delivery, Sunak struggled to bat off challenges from his opponents.
One such moment in the debate was when Tom Tugendhat and Rishi Sunak clashed on the former Chancellor’s National Insurance tax hike. Tom Tugendhat pointed out that he alone was the only Tory candidate who had not voted in favour of the controversial tax hike. Going even further, Tugendhat rather cheekily pointed out that Rishi Sunak only did it because Boris Johnson wanted it.
"I asked why on Earth this was going to be necessary, you told me, 'Because the boss wanted it'.
That exchange underscored Rishi Sunak’s critical weakness in the race to become Prime Minister, and one that is likely to prove fatal for his ambitions. He does not have any distance from the Boris Johnson era, making it difficult for him to be able to be the chap to deliver the reset the struggling Conservative government clearly needs. But more than that, his hands are dipped in the metaphorical blood of big spending, big borrowing, big taxing - three things disqualifying in the eyes of many Tories.
Tugendhat, definitely the outsider candidate (he never served in the cabinet under Boris Johnson) was able to draw peoples attention to all of these Sunak weaknesses.
Going further, according to instant polling of normal voters and 2019 Tory voters, Tom Tugendhat also comes out ahead of the field.
Opinium’s instant snap poll of 1000 normal voters (not just Tories) revealed Tugendhat streets ahead on 36%, with Sunak on 25%, Mordaunt 12% Badenoch 12% and Liz Truss flopping with a mere 6%
Further, the Opinium polling also reveals Tugendhat, hitherto written off by commentators as a no-hope candidate also managed to edge Rishi Sunak out among 2019 Tory voters
Conservative voters liked what they saw in Tugendhat, securing a surprising 29% over Sunak’s 28%. Even more noteworthy is the 42% of Labour voters and 33% of swing voters giving Tom top marks. This all begins to suggest that if the Tories are serious about searching for a candidate who can actually win them the next General Election, it is Tom Tugendhat.
Kemi Badenoch and her re-heated Thatcherite tribute act struggles to cut through and Rishi Sunak while avoiding a defeat in the debate, clearly does not seal the deal. In fact, Sunak seemed to be something of a throw-back to 2010s Cameroon Conservatism, which is simply not where either Tory voters or the wider electorate are anymore.
It has become increasingly clear that the candidate the Labour Party should fear the most is Tom Tugendhat. A Lieutenant Colonel in the Army reserves and Territorials, the MP for Tonbridge and Malling based on these numbers clearly enjoys far more cut through with voters and Tory party members than many may have previously realised.
If this contest does have a dark horse candidate, it could just be Tom Tugendhat. Regardless of who goes on to win the Premiership ultimately, he has surely secured a place in any future Conservative cabinet.
Tories would be mad not to back Tom based on these numbers and that performance, and Labour should hope he does not make it to the final two. After all, I remain certain that whomever the non-Sunak candidate going in front of the Tory membership is, will win.
Should be very entertaining 👍👍
But then again Tory voters were foolish enough to reject Rory Stewart.