STATE OF PLAY: GENDER REFORM
Exploring public opinion, polling data and early signs the Scottish Government are ready to make concessions
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THERE is clearly a majority ready and willing in Holyrood parliament to pass the SNP-led government’s GRA reform proposals. So what is the hold up? And why are we now learning of plans by Scottish Government (ScotGov) ministers to water down their proposals?
One explanation is that despite Holyrood’s pro-GRA reform parliamentary arithmetic, the reforms are nonetheless highly controversial policy. We know that key figures inside the SNP are known to harbour “concerns”, such as Kate Forbes.1 That one of the figures rumoured to be a possible successor to First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has a few issues with the proposed GRA indicates that hidden beneath the parliamentary majority for the proposals, the SNP is in fact deeply divided.
The Sunday Times is reporting that if the Scottish Government were to push through GRA proposals as is currently, they would face a backbench rebellion
“Ministers believe there is a parliamentary majority at Holyrood to push through the contentious proposals as they stand, although they would anticipate a small rebellion within nationalists ranks.”2
Such a notion as SNP backbenchers rebelling against the leadership is, in modern times at least, unheard of. Indeed the SNP is known under Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership for its ‘Stalin’ approach to party disciple. Back in 2015 it was revealed the party had changed standing orders to ensure its Westminster MPs could not dissent publicly from the party line,
The new standings orders state that any MP must "accept that no member shall within or outwith the parliament publicly criticise a group decision, policy or another member of the group".3
So how has the SNP found itself fearing a backbench rebellion concerning GRA reform?
Well the first indications that Nicola Sturgeon and her team were concerned about GRA proposals impacting on party discipline was that all references to it were scrubbed clean from the May 2021 Holyrood re-elect pitch. The entire GRA reform agenda was punted off into the long grass. Now given that we know Ms Sturgeon is personally quite committed to the proposed GRA reforms, that she ducked the issue in her re-elect is revealing.
The bottom line is simple, last May the First Minister saw Alex Salmond’s new Alba outfit doubling down heavily on two themes: demands for a second independence referendum now and full-throated opposition to GRA reforms. Ms Sturgeon clearly understood that GRA is divisive enough within Nationalist (and nationalist) ranks, that if she pushed her pro-GRA views too heavily, she’d risk losing support to Alba.
But there is more to this whole story that simply divisions within SNP or nationalist ranks. The fact is, we now have a decent bit of polling on regarding the issue of GRA reforms; and public opinion is not reflected in Holyrood’s parliamentary majority for the proposals.
Back in September last year, Panelbase conducted a poll for the Sunday Times4. It’s sample size was a robust 2003 with a fieldwork 6-10 September 2021. Among the various questions asked was, ‘Which of the following do you believe should be urgent priorities for the Scottish Government’.
Only 13% of Scottish voters said ‘Reforming the Gender Recognition Act to enable trans people to quickly change their legal gender’.
But more interestingly, back in September, only 19% of SNP voters considered it a priority.
So we know that the whole issue of GRA was low priority for both SNP voters and the wider Scottish electorate as we entered 2022. But further polling indicates that, not only is GRA reform not a voter priority, it is also deeply controversial and staggeringly unpopular.
According to a Panelbase commissioned by ‘For Women Scot’ in December 13th 20215 we discovered just how opposed to SNP’s GRA reforms the Scottish electorate actually is.
On the question regarding access to female only spaces (women’s refuges, bathrooms etc), a staggering 67% of voters opposed allowing anyone access if they were still bodily male
Worth noting is the absence of any real gender gap between men and women. 66% of females oppose it, and 69% of men.
On the question regarding a person changing their legal gender, only 29% of Scots backed the idea of self-identification. A huge 71% insisted instead on medical experts making an assessment. This alone shoots a massive hole into the side of the Scottish Government’s GRA proposals - which are designed to allow for self-identification. A position apparently only supported by 29% of Scottish voters.
And on the issue of under 18s being able to access reassignment surgery, ScotGov’s position was even more out of step with public opinion. A whopping 81% opposed under 18s being able to access sex reassignment surgery, such as double mastectomies, or hormone treatments.
A further 73% opposed allowing under 18s to socially transition at school by changing their name or their sex on school records without their parents' consent.
Most interestingly however, was the finding that a party's support for the protection of women's sex-based rights would make 78% of Scottish voters more likely to vote for that party.
Clearly the SNP’s push for GRA reform risks alienating a lot of voters, and Alba is still lurking in the wings as a pro-independence nationalist alternative, waiting for Ms Sturgeon’s SNP to lose confidence of nationalist voters. Plus the Scottish Conservatives have become more robust in their public opposition to GRA reforms too, also no doubt spotting the huge difficulties the SNP have landed themselves in politically.
So the polling indicates entering 2022 two things, firstly that the issue of GRA reform was simply not a voter priority at all. And secondly, on the issues it raises, the SNP led government’s pro-GRA reform proposals are immensely unpopular with voters. Especially when the specifics are explained to them.
The Times provided a nice graphical summary of the December Panelbase poll6
Thus, with all of this in mind it isn’t surprising the SNP are scrambling to water-down their GRA reform proposals. Fact is, they face internal divisions on the issue, and public opinion is massively opposed to their reform proposals.
One thing is worth noticing, ScotGov ministers seem hellbent on not delaying matters any further, it has been reported that “ministers intend to press ahead to get a new law through parliament by the summer.”7, and are refusing any further delays to the GRA reform bill.
If ScotGov is refusing to delay matters any longer, and intend to push forward with a deeply unpopular GRA reform bill, then they had best water down some of the contents. Not least since local elections are in May, and if opposition parties all chose to flag up this issue, it could place the SNP in a delicate political opposition.
Perhaps this is why we now learn ministers are hinting in leaks to the press that they might actually keep the minimum age for obtaining a gender recognition certificate (GRC) at 18. This is significant, as many pro-GRA stakeholders talking with the government have been lobbying hard for this age to be cut down to 16; in some cases calls have been made for as young as 128. But public opinion seems to be beginning to make itself felt on ministerial thinking.
One wonders what else in the GRA reform proposals will also be watered down? It’s clear that opponents of the GRA reform proposals as it currently stands are winning the political battle.
Back in September last year, ‘Women Won’t Wheesht’ led a protest outside of the Holyrood parliament. Among their speakers was Scotsman Journalist, author and former Chief Press Officer for Jack McConnell as First Minister, Susan Dalgety. If anything more and more Scots have become aware of this issue, and are agreeing with Susan Dalgety. It seems ‘the big mo’ of Scottish politics is with Ms Dalgety, Kate Miller Marion Calder and the others working under the banner of ‘Women Won’t Wheesht’
At the heart of this debate is a clashing of rights in a liberal democracy. We are witnessing a clash between women’s rights, as understood and advanced by the women’s liberation struggle, and trans peoples rights. But when discussing the issue of GRA reforms - as currently proposed by Nicola Sturgeon - it is incumbent on the SNP to explain how they are balancing this clash of rights. As Mandy Rhodes wrote in Holyrood Magazine,
“If anyone can simply self-identify as a woman, obtain a Gender Recognition Certificate without any need for medical gate-keeping and be, to all intents and purposes, then considered a ‘woman’ in the eyes of the law, self-evidently, it shifts the dial on the legal protections that biological women surely have.
And it’s incumbent on the First Minister to answer the question of how it does not.”9
Thus far, despite the concessions being hinted at by ScotGov ministers, this fundamental crux of the issue remains unaddressed. And I’m positive that in pursuit of clarity in this area, the women of Scotland ‘won’t wheesht’. After all, is it really so unreasonable of feminists to point out the inherent problems of allowing a full-bodied males into a women’s refuge where battered and vulnerable women have fled violent partners? There are many legitimate issues arising from GRA reforms as they currently stand, for women across Scotland.
The fact is, there is a clash of rights here, and Scottish society needs to find a balance between those competing rights. It doesn’t help anyone for the Scottish Government to defy public opinion, and ignore legitimate concerns from women’s rights activists.
It will take more than a little cosmetic watering-down of the GRA bill as it currently stands if ScotGov, and the SNP in particular, are to avoid very real political pain in the coming weeks and months ahead.
Boothman, John (2022, February 13), “SNP ready to make concessions on gender reforms ahead of May elections”, Sunday Times, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snp-ready-to-make-concessions-on-gender-reforms-ahead-of-may-elections-j72d529lw
Ibid
Gardham, Magnus (2015, March 30), “SNP clampdown on MPs who fail to toe the party line”, The Herald, https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13207900.snp-clampdown-mps-fail-toe-party-line/
Panelbase, September 6-10 2021, conducted for Sunday Times, https://drg.global/wp-content/uploads/Sunday-Times-tables-for-publication-100921.pdf
Panelbase, December 10, 2021, conducted on behalf of ‘For Women, Scot’, https://drg.global/wp-content/uploads/FWS-Tables-for-publication-070122.pdf
Allardyce, Jason (2021, December 19), “Ministers face public backlash over gender recognition reform plans”, Times, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ministers-face-public-backlash-over-gender-recognition-reform-plans-dvgljmqrf
Bootman, John (2022, February 13), “SNP ready to make concessions on gender reforms ahead of May elections”, Times, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snp-ready-to-make-concessions-on-gender-reforms-ahead-of-may-elections-j72d529lw
Ibid
Rhodes, Mandy, (2021, September 19), “Editor's Column: Time to Speak Up”, Holyrood Magazine, https://www.holyrood.com/comment/view,editors-column-time-to-speak-up