SNP DISARRAY IN WESTMINSTER
Sturgeon's authority fades as a fractious SNP group gets ready to decide its next Westminster Leader. Whispers sing Stephen Flynn has the numbers necessary to take the crown
Whispers of a frontbench clear-out of the SNP Westminster group grow as the race to succeed Ian Blackford gets underway. Alison Thewlis has already thrown her hat into the ring for the top Westminster SNP job. But should Stephen Flynn decide to stand this will not be case of plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
Ousting Blackford
If you have never heard of Stephen Flynn, SNP MP for Aberdeen South, then you really should. His name has risen to the top of discussions in recent months following two failed attempts at ousting Ian Blackford. As recently as just last month The Times was reporting he wanted the top job.
Yet politics is a dangerous game, and climbing the greasy poll is replete with personal and professional risk. Two weeks ago, following the Times reporting and the two failed attempts to push out Ian Blackford, Mr Flynn tweeted “I can confirm I've no intention of standing”.
It is understood that he was prevailed upon to make this public statement by allies and friends of one Nicola Sturgeon. But a few weeks in politics is akin to an entire earth orbit around the sun. As soon as talk mounted that the ‘coup was back on’ against Blackford, he abruptly resigned just this week.
A little birdy has sang to this writer that the day before Blackford’s resignation, Nicola Sturgeon made a rare appearance by Zoom at the MPs’ weekly Westminster group meeting. Apparently she attempted to quell fears over the potential impact of a de facto referendum.
Despite Ms Sturgeon’s appearance, 23 MPs still signed up to remove Blackford in a move that was presented to him the next day. The message was clear, the ‘humble crofter’ (and arms trade profiteer) was told a mere day after Sturgeon's zoom that "the game is up"
It seems the First Minister is eager to avoid Ian Blackford’s defenestration and head-off Mr Flynn becoming leader of her party’s MPs down at Westminster. Which rather leads to the interesting question, ‘why?
SNP disarray at Westminster
One would be making a mistake to think this is all merely petty internal SNP squabbling among Westminster MPs with too much time on their hands. The fact is, they do have too much time on their hands, but this idleness is driving very real differences on policy and strategy.
Nicola Sturgeon’s ‘de facto referendum’ pitch has went down with some of her own MPs about as well as a fresh plate of chòu dòufu (Chinese fermented tofu, infamous for its truly rancid smell).
The fact that Nicola Sturgeon felt an imperative to ease SNP MP fears concerning her ‘de facto referendum’ idea in an attempt to prop up Blackford should not come as a surprise. After all latest polling indicates up-to a third of all SNP MPs could soon be joining the dole queue at a jobcentre near them. Quite a few SNP MPs are whispering to journalists that the distraction of a Sunak v Starmer contest and the attractive prospect of kicking out the Tories will undercut the pro-independence message; and that a single-issue General Election message will merely increase the rapidity with which they lose their jobs.
Key for Flynn - apparently confident - that he could have the numbers to clinch a leadership bid is his support from what is dubbed the “Tuesday Club”. Among the members of this grouping of SNP MPs are: Brendan O’Hara (who told Blackford the game was up on Wednesday), David Linden, Steven Bonnar, Alan Brown and Richard Thomson. Interestingly, the SNP chief whip at Westminster, Owen Thompson, is close to the group. Noises suggest that if Flynn becomes leader he will be one of the few frontbenchers unlikely to be facing the sack.
But if concern has grown concerning the ‘de facto referendum’ pitch that Blackford (ever the Sturgeon loyalist) backed, frustrations extend beyond just this. Growing numbers of SNP MPs now openly speculate in earshot of hacks about what exactly is the point of trotting down to Westminster just to complain about the lack of independence once-a-week at PMQs. There are palpable feelings that party bosses north of the wall have neglected and ignored the MPs. Few can now doubt that with Blackford out, Sturgeon’s influence over the Westminster SNP MPs will lessen and should Flynn take over likely collapse completely.
It isn’t a coincidence that SNP MP Joanna Cherry - who Blackford beat to become Westminster leader in 2017 and who was sacked from the party’s frontbench after clashing with the leadership over trans rights - said she was “pleased” to see him resign.
Pay extra special attention to her line: “I hope the SNP Westminster group will be now left to choose our new leader without outside interference.” You do not require guesses to know who that pointed remark was aimed at…the current occupant of Bute House.
The disintegration of Blackford-Sturgeon authority was best illustrated just a few days ago when a significant rebellion took place on a key vote
In a sign of their disquiet, 16 of them rebelled against the SNP whip in a Commons vote two days ago over whether one of their MPs, John Nicolson, should face a probe by the Commons watchdog for sharing correspondence with Speaker Lindsay Hoyle on social media.
They had been told the abstain on the vote, but instead voted against the move.1
On December 6, the annual general meeting of the SNP Group is due to take place. And for all Nicola Sturgeon’s personal office’s best efforts to keep Ian Blackford in place, he is gone.
Party frustration at the ‘de facto referendum’ nonsense, partially due to feeling ignored by SNP bosses in Holyrood. Ultimately feeling of aimlessness were likely made worse by the Gropey-Grady sex pest mishandling scandal and also the shocking defence put forward by SNP MP Patricia Gibson (also accused of sexual harassment) that sexual harassment is not as serious if a woman does it and the victim is male…
Stephen Flynn: a loyal party man not-so-loyal to Sturgeon
Under Nicola Sturgeon’s aegis her party has come to depend heavily on her personality appeal in elections combined with the usual dross about independence being ‘just over the next hill’ to inspire turnout. But those days could be over should Stephen Flynn succeed to the top SNP Westminster job and become Group Leader.
It is already well known Flynn is sceptical about the worthiness of a ‘de facto’ referendum plan for the next General Election. Although Flynn - like all nationalists - is a true party man and convinced believer in separation, he nevertheless demonstrates a refreshing independence of mind.
Unlike Blackford, he has proven himself more than willing to publicly call-out Nicola Sturgeon. When Sturgeon announced her opposition to drilling at the Cambo oilfield, off Shetland last year Flynn felt blindsided and unloaded on the First Minister:
“You can support a just transition [to net zero] without denigrating an industry that supports the jobs of thousands of my constituents.”
Strong stuff, not commonly seen inside a party Nicola Sturgeon likes to imagine is hers. And an indication he takes a very different view of oil and gas policy than Nicola Sturgeon.
Ultimately should Flynn succeed Blackford, change will rapidly come and we will likely see him establish a powerbase inside the SNP independent of Sturgeon. Challenges to the Sturgeon-Harvie regime in Holyrood over energy policy seem highly likely. Questions concerning method and strategy for obtaining independence would be inevitable, eroding Sturgeon’s preference to talk big but resolutely do nothing. But questions remain if Flynn or anyone else can really round up an SNP Westminster group feeling bored, ignored and rudder-less down in London. It’s never easy to fix a fractious atmosphere grappling with the multiple mishandled problems bequeathed by the ‘humble crofter’.
Schofield, Kevin (2022, 1, December), ‘Ian Blackford Stands Down As SNP Leader At Westminster’, ,https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/snp-westminster-leader-ian-blackford-preparing-to-stand-down_uk_63889184e4b0d174095f2c99
What will we do for entertainment at PMQ’s now!