Reform’s Revolution: Nationalist, Populist — and Politically Unstable

Reform UK Voters Want a Tougher, Simpler Britain — But Their Demands Don’t Add Up

Reform has been topping the polls, and will hold the reigns of power after the English local elections are finished. Now comes the hard part: a movement of protest will now need to run something. Nigel Farage has been pledging “change”, campaigning on the slogan ‘Britain is Broken’. But the change his voters actually want is nationalist, populist, contradictory, and politically unstable.

What do Reform voters want?

Campaigning in Scunthorpe, Farage told The Associated Press that his movement plans to “completely change British history and win it”. Nigel thinks that change should involve a British DOGE effort, explaining, “You bring the auditors in, find out why all this money is being spent on consultants and agency workers, end work from home — boom, gone, done, over.”

Yet it’s far from clear that when the rubber actually meets the proverbial road, whether Farage’s vision of a “DOGE for every country” is politically what his voters think they are getting.

Polling data gives us a snapshot into the mind of Reform voters, and we can sum-up their views into four broad areas: strong cultural conservatism and nationalism, economic views a blend of populism and statism, climate and international scepticism, authoritarian social views - but not uniformly.

In short, in the UK context Reform UK is tapping into a segment of voters who combine:

• Hard-line nationalism and anti-immigration,

• Cultural conservatism and authoritarianism,

• Populist distrust of elites and big business,

• Support for public ownership and scepticism of welfare generosity.

As we explore the numbers, it becomes rapidly clear that Farage’s ‘peoples army’ consists of voters backing harsher courts and migrant removals, but also nationalisation and tax cuts — a volatile cocktail of anger with no clear economic anchor.

Strong cultural conservatism and nationalism

According to YouGov polling from July last year, Reform voters are overwhelmingly committed to traditional values, law and order, traditional concept of national sovereignty, and restrictive immigration policies.

• 89% believe young people lack respect for traditional British values.

• 86% support immediate removal and permanent exclusion of Channel-crossing migrants.

• 85% say court sentences are not harsh enough.

• 78% think multiculturalism has worsened the UK.

• 77% support the death penalty for some crimes.

• 77% want more defence spending.

These numbers shows Farage’s voter base is motivated by national identity, security, and cultural homogeneity — core issues for populist-right movements. However it is a mistake to brand Reform as an insurgent right-wing political party.

Economic views are a blend of populism and statism

Despite it being easy for those of us on the centre-left of British politics to define Reform UK as a product of a populist right, this would be a mistake. The populism is as much of the political left as the right.

Reform voters lean toward working-class economic populism in some areas:

• 74% say big businesses exploit ordinary people.

• 73% think working people don’t get their fair share of wealth.

• 71% support nationalising utilities (energy, water, railways).

• 69% want higher taxes on the rich.

Yet there is fiscal scepticism too:

• 60% think welfare benefits are too generous.

• 51% believe the government taxes and spends too much.

The incoherence is obvious, these are voters who want nationalisation of utilities, but thinks government should spend less, do less. They wish for redistribution of wealth feeling the working class are not getting their fair share, but still echo the Victorian language of ‘deserving and undeserving’ poor.

These numbers shows a ‘left on economic fairness, right on welfare and taxation’ tendency — similar to many post-Brexit working-class voters. It is incredibly unstable politically when the rubber of governing his the road of such volatile public opinion (just ask Boris Johnson).

Climate and international scepticism

These voters however are hostile to, and desire to resist expansive green policies and foreign entanglements (bad news for Ed Miliband and Angela Rayner)

• 61% say the UK is doing/spending too much to reduce carbon emissions.

• 61% want a looser EU relationship.

• 44–46% back strong support for Israel and Ukraine — though these numbers are lower and more divided than on domestic issues.

Authoritarian social views, but not uniformly

Finally there is a clear authoritarian social impulse, but the target of this reactionary outlook isn’t the same ‘other’ as in years gone by:

• 69% oppose legal gender changes.

• 65% support same-sex marriage

Some might find it surprising, but Nigel Farage’s voters seem rather relaxed with us gays having our rights, showing less hostility to established LGB rights. It seems their problem is with the ‘T’, going beyond legitimate campaigns for protecting women’s-sex based rights and veering into the altogether darker world of saying ‘no’ to trans rights. That 69 per cent of Reform voters going into this year’s English local elections cycle do not believe transgender people should even exist (no rights to legally changing gender) is disturbing.

English local elections in context

After the local election results all trickle in over the course of the next 24 hours the spotlight will be on Reform UK. Farage’s party will now be placed in charge of multi-million pound budgets — and MPs and strategists from both Labour and Conservatives believe they will discover governing isn’t as easy as Farage’s DOGE rhetoric makes out.

His voters are gnashing and chomping for ‘change’, but its a potent and obviously unstable coalition he has assembled. They wish

• Hard-line nationalism and anti-immigration,

• Cultural conservatism and authoritarianism,

• Populist distrust of elites and big business,

• Support for public ownership and scepticism of welfare generosity.

These voters resemble the core "Blue Wall / Red Wall" coalition that swung to the Conservatives in 2019 before swinging back to Labour in 2024 — they were frustrated with the Tories’ perceived failures to deliver on migration control, national sovereignty, and working-class economic fairness.

Are these new insurgent politicians on the left or right on policy? Time will tell, although many will suspect Reform could potentially “fuck up” (to quote one Labour MP’s line)

So, the next question becomes: how does Reform UK threaten the Tories and Labour?

The threat to the Tories…

Reform UK is an immediate and acute threat to the Conservatives, especially in Brexit-backing, working-class, and outer suburban seats where Boris Johnson’s 2019 Tory coalition was built.

Here’s why:

• Hardliner nationalism outflanks Tory caution:
  With 86% of Reform voters backing immediate migrant removals and 61% wanting looser EU ties, Reform offers a clearer, harder version of Brexit and border control than the Tories’ compromise-heavy reality — fuelling frustration with perceived Tory backsliding.

• Law-and-order authoritarianism eclipses Tory pragmatism:
  Support for harsher sentencing (85%) and the death penalty (77%) shows appetite for tough measures the Conservatives hesitate to implement — making the Tories look weak or out of touch on crime.

• Cultural conservatism trumps Tory modernisation:
  High opposition to multiculturalism (78%), gender reform (69%), and liberal social change positions Reform as a vehicle for those disillusioned with Cameron-era liberal-conservative social shifts. Reform reclaims the flag for “real conservative values”.

• Populist anti-elite mood undermines Tory incumbency:
  Reform’s anti-big business and anti-rich sentiment (74% say big business exploits ordinary people) fractures the traditional Tory alliance between business elites and working-class voters — especially as Sunak’s image ties Tories to wealth and global capital.

• Tory credibility gap post-Brexit:
  Many 2019 voters backed Johnson’s Conservatives to "Get Brexit Done" and control borders, rebuild industry, and boost working-class prospects. Reform capitalises on widespread Tory failure to deliver tangible benefits from Brexit and immigration control.

In short:
Reform UK is draining both votes and legitimacy from the Conservatives by offering a purer, angrier version of the nationalism, cultural conservatism, and working-class advocacy the Tories campaigned on in 2019 but failed to deliver. The threat is most acute in Red Wall marginals and coastal constituencies — places where a split right-wing vote could let Labour or Lib Dems win, but where long-term Tory collapse may also take root. The Conservatives cannot hope to shift right to remedy this challenge, after all voters can smell the authentic product versus the pale imitation. But it isn’t only the Tories who should be deeply concerned by Reform.

The threat to Labour…

While Reform UK is primarily eroding the Conservatives’ right flank, it also poses a significant threat to Labour — especially in post-industrial, Brexit-leaning, working-class seats where Labour’s traditional base has frayed.

Here’s why:

• Economic Populism overlaps with Old Labour:
  High support for nationalising utilities (71%), taxing the rich more (69%), and cracking down on big business (74%) echoes classic Labour economic rhetoric — but without Labour’s more progressive liberal social values.

• Anti-elite anger resonates with disillusioned ex-Labour voters:
  Reform’s message of ‘ordinary people vs. elites’ taps into the same grievances that fuelled Brexit and the collapse of Labour’s Red Wall in 2019 — many of these voters feel Labour abandoned their economic interests and their cultural identity.

• Cultural conservatism repels Labour’s liberal stance:
  Reform voters’ deep scepticism of multiculturalism (78%), gender reforms (69%), and support for harsh migration policies (86%) alienates them from Labour’s progressive platform — locking Labour out of reconnecting without major repositioning. In many respects this could be the most fundamental challenge for Labour, as it’s unclear if the party could or should meet these sorts of views half-way.

• Labour’s cautious stance on immigration and defence leaves space:
  Starmer’s attempt to straddle both progressive and centrist voters means Labour appears vague or evasive on migration control and national sovereignty — areas where Reform speaks with brutal clarity.

In short:
Reform UK consolidates a bloc of culturally conservative, economically interventionist voters that once anchored Labour’s northern and Midlands heartlands. Even if Reform splits the right-wing vote and helps Labour win seats tactically, the party still undermines Labour’s long-term ability to rebuild its traditional working-class coalition.

The limits of Nigel’s blue sky.

Reform UK is not just a protest party — it is the political expression of a deep cultural revolt and economic frustration that transcends traditional left-right labels. Its voters want a Britain that is tougher on borders and crime, more aggressively proud of its national identity (whether this is ‘English’ or a recognisably ‘British’ identity is less clear). It demands we be harsher on perceived ‘elites’, yet paradoxically insists on a more interventionist in the economy. This unstable fusion — nationalist, populist, authoritarian, but also statist — poses a structural threat to both Labour and the Conservatives.

For the Tories, it bleeds away their post-Brexit coalition by offering a purer version of the promises Johnson never delivered. For Labour, it cements the alienation of the strongly culturally conservative, economically left-leaning voters the party has struggled to win back. The hard truth for Britain’s political establishment is that Reform is not going away soon — but neither are the contradictions that may one day tear Nigel’s coalition apart. As the Labour MP put it, perhaps Reform in power will end up with them “fucking up”.

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Dean M Thomson is currently a lecturer with Beijing Normal - Baptist University (BNBU), formerly known as Beijing Normal - Hong Kong Baptist University, United International College (UIC).

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