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AS the clock continues to count down to the May 5th Scottish local elections, there seems to be something in the Glasgow air. Latest data suggests Scottish Labour is recovering and despite strong polling, the Scottish National Party seems concerned about its ability to turn its voters out.

The latest polling commissioned by Ballot Box Scotland, conducted by Survation1, has painted a surprising picture. It reveals a 5 point lead for Scottish Labour over the Scottish Conservatives in Scottish Parliament (SP) constituency voting intention. Plus a 4 point lead on the list. These numbers taken together both represent the highest lead for Scottish Labour over the Scottish Tories since the SP16 elections were fought.

And the same polling also uncovers a Scottish Labour lead of 8 points over the Scottish Tories for Westminster election polling too. Which is the largest lead in any poll since the General Election of 2015.

Taking both of these things together, it suggests positive political momentum for the Scottish Labour Party heading into the local elections next month. Clearly the fallout from Boris Johnson’s partying through the pandemic in 10 Downing street has negatively effected Douglas Ross; despite his best efforts to secure distance. But it also suggests that Anas Sarwar - easily the most popular of the opposition party leaders in Scotland - might be beginning to translate his personal appeal into votes for his party. If he succeeds in doing so, it would represent a major step forward toward recovery for Scottish Labour electorally.

We already know that when Anas Sarwar secures higher public profile, voters increasingly like what they see. Take for example Anas Sarwar’s Savanta ComRes favourability numbers. On the run-up to the May 2021 Holyrood elections his numbers spike up, and by election day nearly catch Nicola Sturgeon’s net-favourability score. Likewise, as we speed toward the 2022 Local Elections, again his personal favourability has begun to tick upward once more.

Sarwar went from net 0 favourability in March 11th 2021 to a net +11% by May 5th 2021. And a similar patterns seems to be unfolding again, where he went from a net 0 favourability on September 12th 2021 to +7% January 24th 2022. There is little doubt Sarwar is an asset to Scottish Labour, and finally the polling for the party he leads begins to suggest forward progress beyond merely his own personal favourability scores.

But what of the Scottish National Party (SNP)? They are polling at 44% according to Survation (24–28 March 2022)2. Sounds good doesn’t it? After all, in 2017 they secured only 32.4% of first preference votes. So on the basis of that comparison the SNP are in line to make gains in these local elections, not net losses. But that isn’t the only way to analyse the picture.

If we consider how the SNP were polling in March 2017, they were landing 46% (Ipsos Mori/STV 24 Feb–6 Mar 2017)3. But by May of the same year only landed 32.4% first preference votes. Put simply the SNP in 2017 had a major turnout failure, as their push for a second independence referendum at the time ran counter to the prevailing national mood.

The SNP are heading into the 2022 local elections polling worse -March 2022 - than they were in March 2017, on the run-up to election day (May 4th 2017/May 5th 2022). In short, the SNP were heading into the local elections of May 2017 polling better then than they are now approaching May 2022.

And given the tone and nature of the SNP local election campaign; they seem to be seriously concerned about another turnout failure this time round.

And we know from the polling that Scottish voters; just like in 2017; do not think this is the right time for another independence referendum. Post-pandemic the top issues on the minds of voters are health, education and the economy. The pursuit of constitutional issues has become a minority focus for now, out of step with wider Scottish opinion. By way of evidence, the latest YouGov poll (29-31 March 2022) found only 36% of Scottish voters back an independence referendum on the First Minister’s proposed timescale (2023).4

The tone and tenor of the SNP campaign feels defensive, concerned and leaning heavily on the politics of the negative prospectus. For example the latest campaign advert the SNP produced mentioned the word ‘tory’ 10 times, ‘brexit’ twice but not one mention of any SNP policies5. Indeed if you watch it, you might be forgiven for not realising the SNP are the ones in government both locally here in Glasgow and nationally over at Holyrood. But the campaign has witnessed their national record at Holyrood going ignored, with no references to any of the top voter concerns (health, education, economy).

It all feels a lot like a campaign focusing on best-hit anti-tory rhetoric, amid a scrambling 'get the vote out' operation. Meanwhile they know their record is poor both nationally and in terms of local government. And they also realise Scottish Labour tails are up, polling a better second place in Scottish polling than any time since the 2015 General Election or 2016 Holyrood Elections.

For the SNP, if voters considering possible alternatives begin comparing them to Scottish Labour as opposed to the more politically beneficial comparison with ‘the Tories’, they might just start to get into really choppy waters. Especially if Anas Sarwar is becoming the chap Scottish voters regard as a suitable alternative First Minister as the political era of Ms Sturgeon slowly fades.

It is then surely no accident Glasgow has been awarded £1.95m from the Scottish Government’s £6m ‘City Centre Recovery Fund’6. My home city has been led in shambolic fashion by Cllr Susan Aitken’s administration. Here in Glasgow the SNP has wheezed under a blizzard of bad headlines, poor labour relations and accusations of justifying Holyrood cuts as opposed to speaking up for the city.

Neil MacKay’s August 8th 2021 big read has proved embarrassing for Cllr Aitken and her SNP team locally. In the piece it is noted the SNP have sought to put an end to ‘statism’, or the “the old-style socialism of Scottish Labour”. But in essence, it was really just a political cover to justify failing to push back on nearly £1bn of cuts to Scottish local authorities7 by the SNP in Holyrood over the last eight years.

Two sections are worth quoting which captures the strangeness of it all

“AITKEN is unsurprisingly trying to rewrite the rulebook. Gone is the old top down “council knows best” attitude. The challenges of the 21st century are far too big for what Aitken calls “municipal paternalism” – or as some in her administration would say, “the old-style socialism of Scottish Labour”. It’s not a rejection of “municipalism”, she says, but of “statism”.”8

“Aitken says she “fundamentally disagrees” with the idea that citizens “can’t manage unless the council is there, not just holding their hand but doing it for them”. The culture change is far from complete, though. “We’re not quite there yet,” she admits.”

Now I don’t know about you, but that paints a vivid picture of an SNP administration in Glasgow beholden to a political mentality more familiar to old fashioned Thatcherite Tories than a supposedly social-democratic centre-left party.

The fact is, the SNP realise that they can’t hope to defend their local record in Glasgow. Worse, they have actually spent the better part of the last four years justifying shocking austerity imposed by Nicola Sturgeon on the city.

Ultimately, I am not saying that we are about to witness the defenestration of the dominant political party in Scotland in these local elections. But it is abundantly clear the SNP are defensive, running from their rhetoric and leaning heavily into negative prospectus politics. And the comparison of Anas Sarwar saying ‘here is something to vote for’, as compared to the SNP’s ‘here is something to vote against’, might just cause a few surprises come election day. If the SNP struggle to energise their voters to turn out - as happened last time in 2017 - we might just start hearing talk of ‘peak SNP’.

1

Survation poll (2022, 24-28 March), commissioned by Ballot Box Scotland, https://ballotbox.scot/local-survation-march-22

2

Survation poll (2022, 24-28 March), commissioned by Ballot Box Scotland, https://ballotbox.scot/local-survation-march-22

3

Ipsos Mori Scottish Public Opinion Monitor (2017, March), commissioned by STV, https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/migrations/en-uk/files/Assets/Docs/Scotland/scotland-pom-mar-2017-charts.pdf

4

YouGov poll (2022, 29-31 March), commissioned by These Islands, https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/0e05zst5xb/TheseIslands_Scotland_Results_220401.pdf

5

The SNP @theSNP

👉🏼 They've cut Universal Credit for families, while handing bankers a tax cut. 👉🏼 They promised lower energy bills, now they're up by £700. 👉🏼 They've imposed a hard Brexit, and we're all paying the price. The Tories are failing Scotland. We can choose better. #VoteSNP

6

McConnell, Ian (2022, April 5), ‘Glasgow: £1.95m to help city recover’, The Herald, https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/20044630.glasgow-1-95m-help-city-recover/

7

Bol, David (2021, March 14), ‘SNP told to 're-set' councils' relationship after £937m cuts revealed’, The Herald, https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19158278.snp-told-re-set-councils-relationship-937m-cuts-revealed/

8

Mackay, Neil (2021, August 8), ‘NEIL MACKAY'S BIG READ: A brave new Glasgow? Council leader outlines £30bn vision to transform the city’, The Herald, https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19498971.neil-mackays-big-read-brave-new-glasgow-council-leader-outlines-30bn-vision-transform-city/

Dean M Thomson

LOCAL ELECTIONS 2022 | IS SCOTTISH LABOUR…