BRITAIN DOES NOT HAVE AN ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION CRISIS
Discussing the real facts underpinning the latest UK net immigration figures published for 2022.
When author and Pulitzer Prize finalist Suketu Mehta wrote “the west is being destroyed, not by migrants, but by the fear of migrants” he was discussing the stoking of age old fears of the ‘other’. The real risk to the cultural ethos of what is unhelpfully referred to as ‘the west’, he suggested, lay in the motives of the fearmongers. This was back in 2019 and what was true then remains true today.
Just look at the typical choir of shrill voices decrying the latest United Kingdom immigration numbers and we quickly find facts are overlooked in favour of feelings. Now to be direct up front, this piece is not a defence of a UK immigration rate sitting at 606,000 for last year. Numbers on that scale are indeed too high, but the drivers behind that figure are not what the likes of Nigel Farage or Reform UK’s leader Richard Tice are insisting on peddling. And facts actually do matter far more than the doom-laden fear mongering prophesies of the usual Cassandras.
When Mr Farage headlining his gig on GB News seeks to link the high immigration number with rhetoric about our “quality of life is declining”, he is taking you for a fool. Likewise when Mr Tice claims the country is “full” and demands a “net zero” immigration target he is attempting to stoke fears in hopes of outflanking the struggling Tories on the right. But be under no illusions, nothing they are claiming is predicated on the real facts of immigration.
Immigration facts vs fictions
It isn’t about immigrants lowering living standards
“These figures are a total breach of trust between voters and this government. The population explosion continues, our quality of life is declining and all the government will do is to give us more lies”-Nigel Farage1
If Nigel Farage’s attempt to link the 606,000 immigration figure to a declining quality of life is to be considered accurate then something would need to be true. Specifically the latest immigration figure would need to show a mass influx of lower and unskilled migrants entering the UK; thus risking artificially holding down wage increases for those at the lower end of the labour market. But we can categorically say this is not what the numbers actually show.
For one thing, the 606,000 figure is not a story of large numbers of unskilled migrants entering the UK. Even the Daily Telegraph’s Associate Editor Camilla Tominey accepts this reality as she concedes in her anti-immigration article that “a lot of those who are coming in are the Tier 2 high-skilled workers”2.
Tier 2 high skilled workers are not people who are going to diminish our “quality of life”, not least since they are net contributors who raise UK GDP per capita (despite the claims of alt-right figures like The National Pulse Deputy Editor Jack Montgomery).
But don’t take my word for this, let’s keep to verifiable facts. To quote London School of Economics Professor Alan Manning
“If a migrant’s earnings generate the same profit per pound as the average, this would mean that any single migrant earning above £20k would raise GDP per capita. The lowest visa salary thresholds are currently slightly above this level.”3
Now, even if we include the obvious caveats that rules around a migrants dependents are a factor we can still categorically say the immigrants driving the UKs currently high migration figures are clearly those who - in the short term at least - will be major net economic contributors.
Again to quote Professor Manning,
“they [the working migrant] would have to earn over £60k to raise UK GDP per capita. Rules on rights to bring dependents, rarely discussed, make a big difference for the impact of immigration on GDP per capita”
If we’re talking about Tier 2 highly skilled migrants entering the UK, we can categorically say even with a wife not working or a kid needing a school, these people will be earning more than £20,000 or likely even £60,000 per year.
In short, these folk will be contributing more than they take out, generating tax receipts paying for all the much needed investment into schools, hospitals, roads etc that we obviously desperately need. So this is a far cry from the fearmongering rhetoric of the alt-right choir of Farage, Tice or Montgomery.
If this isn’t precisely what Brexiteers like the aforementioned meant by “global Britain” then what the hell was? So we know the latest immigration numbers are not about mass influxes of unskilled immigrants lowering quality of life.
Thus when we see tweets like this from Richard Tice, we know he isn’t motivated by facts or evidence but instead pure fearmongering jingoism and in all likelihood racism
Nor is it about Brexit
Another thing the new immigration figures are not about is sovereign powers gained from Brexit not being used. I know Nigel Farage, Richard Tice and that brigade are desperate to keep peddling the politics of betrayal in hopes of future career opportunities and attention, but the facts matter more.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) makes matters abundantly clear
“Total long-term immigration was estimated at around 1.2 million in 2022, and emigration was 557,000, which means migration continues to add to the population with net migration at 606,000; most people arriving to the UK in 2022 were non-EU nationals (925,000), followed by EU (151,000) and British (88,000).”4
Thus we can say categorically that the high skilled workers entering the UK - driving our high immigration figure - are not EU citizens. In fact the composition of EU immigration changed in 2022, with 39% of people arriving for study related reasons, down from 47% in 2021 and EU immigration to the UK is actually a net negative (i.e. more leaving than entering from EU). So this is not about EU citizens, which means this isn’t about Brexit and the sovereignty gained from voting to leave.
Being clear, if EU migration is net negative and the 606,000 net migration figure is deriving largely from non-EU sources then Brexit is irrelevant to understanding current migration highs.
With this fact in mind, I’m at a total loss why journalists such as Paul Brand of ITV insists on mentioning Brexit powers when covering this story. We know EU migration isn’t driving this (and pre-Brexit we already had powers to limit non-EU migration)
If non-EU migration is driving the trend, and we already had powers pre-Brexit to tackle that side of things this, has *nothing* to do with Brexit or Brexit powers. So journalists, commentators and voters should stop framing it via Brexit.
It isn’t about 'stopping the boats’ either…
When Richard Tice claims “the only Net Zero Britain needs is Net Zero Immigration” while also saying “Only @reformparty_uk will control immigration and stop the boats” he is lying.
Not least since the latest immigration figures prove that this is a story about legal immigration! The latest figures show special visa routes (HK, Ukraine, resettlement) is running at 172,000. This is a key driver behind migration figure and will taper off next year. As for the 208,000 students and dependents, new rules on dependents will drive this down too. None of that is about illegals coming over here on small boats.
In fact there were only 45,755 people detected arriving by small boats in 2022. 51% of those people arrived in the 3 months of August, September and October5. Now I don’t know about you but if the immigration net figure is 606,000, why are Tice, Farage and company insisting on focusing on 45,755 people? Bottom line, illegal boat crossing in the English channel are not driving our high immigration numbers. The fact however that the likes of Tice and Farage want you to believe otherwise should have you asking the question ‘why’?
Yes the illegal boat crossings need to stop, but no that isn’t the biggest or even particularly important aspect explaining our high immigration numbers. So let’s see Nigel Farage’s salivating at Dover with his GB News binoculars for what it is, pathetic attention seeking from a bloke working for a failing news channel.
What it actually is about…
As this piece has went on far long enough, I will finish things up by quickly saying what the immigration figures are about.
It IS about tier 2 higher skilled legal immigration entering the UK, of whom the vast majority will end up being net economic contributors.
It IS about doing the right thing by Hong Kong and Ukraine. When China launched its clampdown following the rioting and chaos in Hong Kong, it involved breaching elements of the One-China-Two-Systems agreement between the UK and China. So, we correctly enabled the movement of Hongkongese holding British National Overseas (BNO) passports to relocate permanently to the UK. As with those fleeing the Ukraine war, these twin migratory movements were temporary and the correct thing to do.
The numbers will inevitably drop sharply over the coming years. We know the 172,000 resettlement from Hong Kong and Ukraine will largely disappear over the next few years and as for the 208,000 students and dependents, new rules on dependents will drive this down too.
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Telegraph, 2023, May 25, 4.00pm, ‘Politics latest news: Nigel Farage says record net migration is 'total breach of trust' https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/25/rishi-sunak-news-latest-boris-johnson-police-migration/
Tominey, Camilla, 2023, ‘Immigration is a numbers game Rishi Sunak cannot afford to lose’, Telegraph, ‘https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/25/immigration-rishi-sunak-numbers-game/
Manning, Alan (2022, October 3), “The link between growth and immigration: unpicking the confusion”, London School of Economics, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-link-between-growth-and-immigration-unpicking-the-confusion/#:~:text=Before%20the%20pandemic%20disrupted%20the,pro%2Dgrowth%3B%20it%20depends.
ONS, ‘Long-term international migration, provisional Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2022’, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingdecember2022
UK Government, 2023, ‘Official Statistics: Irregular migration to the UK, year ending December 2022’, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/irregular-migration-to-the-uk-year-ending-december-2022/irregular-migration-to-the-uk-year-ending-december-2022
Hi Dean,
Thanks for this. Would you say you have been partial in how you address this issue? Several factors you might wish to consider include
1 Population growth pressurises services that impact the poor disproportionately, (health, education, rental properties, social housing and together these feel like they have impacted social mobility. )
2 The dissatisfaction of a great many voters, possibly driven by 1 and 3.
3 The messed-up nature of our immigrant-dependent economy whilst there is a growing rump of more than 5m non-working adults. We get stretched 3rd world education systems to create our tier 2 works and greatly reduce our own social mobility.
Taken together I fear this could be a toxic mix that might end up making Farage look like a good option.