The Union's Upper Hand
Brexit has damaged the Union. But an independent, ESRC-funded academic study of Scottish politics, elections and voting behaviour reveals the Union's structural advantage over the nationalists.
It is not completely surprising to learn that the pursuit of Brexit has, as analysis by Sir John Curtice reveals, resulted in an uptick in support for independence. In a paper he wrote in November 2020 with Ian Montagu he outlines a perfectly robust case.
They found that whilst the Brexit debate post 2016 referendum did not initially alter support for independence, over the course of 2019 it began to. The political stalemate in the ‘hung’ parliament of 2017-2019 witnessed repeated failures to agree on any Brexit course of action. Sir John Curtice & Ian Montagu explain that this intensification around the Brexit debate during this period coincides with a rise in support for Independence.
It looked as though perhaps the continued row about Brexit might now be shifting the balance of opinion on Scotland’s constitutional status in the nationalists’ favour.
On the face of the data they source from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey, a pro-UK reader might begin to fall into something approaching despair. If we look at a graph they use in their paper, it makes for concerning reading for anyone disinclined to support nationalism.
We can clearly see from the data that support for independence rose from 27% in 1999 to 51% by 2019. At the same time the constitutional preference for devolution falls from 59% to 36% over the same time period. However it is worth noting that support for devolution was actually higher in 2007 (62%), 2010 (61%) and 2012 (61%) than when Scotland’s parliament (re)convened in 1999. Even after the Independence Referendum in 2014, and the Scottish Labour wipe-out in 2015 support for devolution remained the preferred choice (49%) over separation (39%).
The switchover between the two does not occur until 2016. This lends itself to argument that perhaps Brexit really was a bitter pill for many ‘no’ voting remain supporting Scots to swallow. For example post-Brexit vote, more Scots are feeling optimistic about an independent Scotland’s future than a Brexit UK one. On the economy, national confidence and pride/identity Brexit switched the equation around for many Scots. In 2014 Independence was seen as the threat on all three of those criteria, by 2019 Brexit was seen as the greater danger.
In short, on three criteria that are widely thought central to the constitutional debate, independence is judged much more favourably than Brexit
None of that is easy reading for the pro-UK camp. But it must be taken seriously.
Yet none of the data above settles the case - far from it. If we turn to the Scottish Election Study (SES), we find new data which begins to alter the picture.
The SES is a detailed independent study of politics and elections in Scotland, funded by the Economic and Research Council. It is top tier quality data for analysing Scottish politics at election time. And luckily for us, this means it covers May 2021 when we had the Holyrood elections.
The SES analysis points to a particular strength for the Union that was absent from Sir John’s November 2020 paper.
Firstly, while it is entirely true that both sides enjoy very solid bases of support, there is something important we should not miss. Namely, the SES finds that the Union has the advantage of heightened conviction levels. SES 2021 asked those who voted in May about the certainty of their voting intentions in a future independence referendum. Two out of three voters chose one of the extreme points - ‘definitely yes’ (29%) or ‘definitely no’ (37%). Right away you can see an advantage for the pro-Union side.
But do not make the mistake of over-estimating the levels of entrenchment. SES analysis makes clear, even those at the extremes can (and some do) change their minds.
The changing of minds has moved equal shares of voters in either direction: 16.4% of 2014 Yes voters now support No, while 16.6% have gone in the other direction.
Secondly, SES 2021 finds that among those who have changed their minds, the Union has the advantage. Converts to the Unionist persuasion are more zealous in their new found view than those freshly converted to nationalism.
A significant 58% of YES to NO switchers consider themselves certain in their new found position. This compares to only 40% of NO to YES switchers. Furthermore, the study finds that the pro-independence side will need to work a lot harder if it is to retain its new recruits
While a large share of new Yes supporters are pretty confident they’ll stay in that camp – a further 35% selected values between –5 and –9 on the scale – the pro-independence camp clearly have more work to do in retaining incoming supporters.
Thirdly, the pro-Union side has yet another structural advantage. SES 2021 reports that if we isolate those who have not changed their minds since 2014 the asymmetrical conviction rate continues to favour the Union.
The No advantage persists when we isolate respondents who haven’t changed their mind since 2014, with 43% being definitely No vs. 32% for definitely Yes.
So if we summarise all of this data from SES 2021, the pro-Union camp has three structural advantages not to be missed. Among those who voted in the May Holyrood election it enjoys a stronger conviction rate than the pro-independence side. Among switchers, the pro-Union side’s new converts are more zealous (therefore committed) to their new position as compared to the pro-Independence side. And finally among those who have not changed their minds at all since 2014, again the pro-Union side enjoys heightened conviction levels over the rival Independence campaign.
I put it to all of you that public perceptions of Brexit, Independence and how it will impact on the economy and national confidence can change quite fast in politics. But what does endure - and has since 2014 - is the core underlying conviction of the pro-Union side of the national question. So yes, Brexit has made the case for the Union harder as Sir John Curtice paper suggests. But in the final analysis, that might not matter in the long term nearly as much as the structural advantage the pro-Union argument enjoys.
Sources
Scottish Election Study 2021: ‘No in Pole Position – Holyrood 2021 Explained, Part Four’ - click here.
Sir John Curtice & Ian Montigu: ‘Is Brexit fuelling support for independence?’ - click here.
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