Plus ça change…
SNP declare the more the thing changes, the more it’s the same thing. Yousaf wins pledging more of the same only with less competence
HAVE you ever wondered about the entomology behind the English proverb ‘plus ça change’? Unsurprisingly it derived from French, specifically the January 1849 issue of the journal Les Guêpes (“The Wasps”) by critic and author Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr. When he penned ‘plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose’, the pithy aphorism quickly become immortal. The line captures the great man’s biting wit and Gallic fatalism. It also beautifully expresses my contemporary attitude to our governing party in Scotland, opting as it has, for Mr Continuity for leadership.
Keeping the thing the same
One of the most striking aspects of Humza Yousaf’s victory is that he expressly ran as the unashamed continuity candidate. His pitch to SNP members was that he’d govern in a similar style and substance as his predecessor. And it showed. For all the talk of a ‘well-being economy’, it was striking how vacuous it all was. This was very much in keeping with Ms Sturgeon, carefully focus grouped expressions and phrases delivered direct to camera. It sounds good (who doesn’t want the economy to prioritise human wellbeing?), but ultimately it’s all slightly platitudinous. Mr Yousaf’s rhetoric about making every day about independence rallied his party faithful whilst costing him nothing - notice he never really makes any clear commitments. Likewise a ‘well-being economy’ means in hard policy substance precious little. This is very much continuity Sturgeon. His only problem is, she was good at delivering the lines as of sincere (perhaps she was at times). But Mr Yousaf sounds like the bloke who has enjoyed staring at himself in the mirror practicing the lines too much.
My grandfather had a saying when he wanted to warn me about middle class blokes playing at being working class; “beware of the bonnet hustlers”. The bonnet of course is the famous Kier Hardy style flat cap, and a hustler is someone attempting to pull a fast one. I cannot escape recalling this memory of my late grandfather whoever I hear Mr Yousaf smile greasily to camera and talk of wanting to be the change Scotland needs…all while insisting he is the heir to the last 16 years of status quo governance. You can’t represent change while insisting you have Nicola Sturgeon on speed dial, someone is attempting to pull a fast one here.
Fundamentally we now face a case of ‘plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose’ writ large. The more this SNP government changes, the more nothing actually ever does. The agenda remains the same, prioritise retention of power. Do this by stoking the constitutional divide by constantly guaranteeing independence is just one more heave around the next corner. Appear modern and progressive by pushing identity politics issues and ignore the hard graft of fixing a broken NHS, education system or railway network. But I’m not sure Scots are really willing to tolerate more of the same only delivered with less competence by the failed ex-minister for education, transport and justice briefs.
Change is in the air
Two things strike me but apparently haven’t dawned on the SNP party membership yet. Firstly, their new leader is less popular than his SNP rival candidates with Scottish voters more broadly. Secondly, he is less appealing than his Scottish Labour rival. Taken together alongside the fact his own fellow cabinet colleague and leadership rival has labelled him incompetent, I think the SNP have made a real mistake opting for continuity.
We know from IPSOS polling that Kate Forbes - despite her disgusting socially regressive anti-gay equality views - was still more popular with Scottish voters.
Forbes on March 23rd had a ‘net’ favourability score of -8, with 27% of the public saying they have a favourable opinion of her and 35% unfavourable. Humza Yousaf’s net score was an embarrassingly lower at -20 (22% favourable, 42% unfavourable)
Put simply, the SNP opted for the candidate voters had a worse impression and opinion of.
Furthermore, Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar outpolls Humza Yousaf with ease. Ipsos previously found the Labour leader in Scotland coming in with -4. And UK Labour leader Kier Starmer was pulling -9. Now these are clearly mixed for Labour, but that was when they were being compared to Ms Sturgeon. She’s yesterdays woman off to spend more time with her driving lessons, it’s Yousaf the Labour boys are being compared to. I for one see no reason why they won’t benefit from the comparison.
The SNP have never been more divided than they are right now. Kate Forbes insists Yousaf can’t keep the trains running on time, and he has continued - until the dying days of the vicious nat circular firing squad - to brandish her a bigot.
Just look at what Yousaf penned for the Daily Record prior to the close of the race
“For me the choice is a pretty stark one. We can either continue to build on that progressive agenda and legacy that has been left behind by Nicola and John Swinney, that has helped us to become the largest political party by quite some distance in Scotland, or we roll back and we don’t make progress.”
“I think we will simply struggle to win our independence.”
“I think some of Kate’s policies that target economic growth and some of her other policies, particularly around the equality agenda, I think jar with those that are on the centre left.”
I struggle to picture this lot coming back together. How do these factions all row back in behind ‘team SNP’? One insists the victor is incompetent and the winner reiterates his vanquished Finance Secretary rival is a regressive bigoted tartan tory.
Somebody should break it to Yousaf that nearly 50% of the SNPs membership backed the candidate whose values “jar” with the centre left. For the first time since the days of Willie Ross, Scottish Labour can talk about ‘tartan Tories’ to Glasgow and central belt voters, and actually have some merit behind doing so.
The more things change, the more they really do remain the same. Pity for Scotland the governing party, badly divided and failing on bread and butter issues, insists on a medicine of continuity. Pity for the SNP I suspect the Scottish centre-left voters have had enough. The worm might just be about to turn, and if it does, the union will be safe for another generation.
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