Nicht o' the Lang Dirks

The story of the night was the implosion of the SNP, but Reform saved them from electoral oblivion.

It was a night of contrasts, Labour elation and disaster and tears for the SNP.

Having become an election winning machine over the last two decades, a generation of nationalist politicians have never quite tasted the bitterness of a defeat on this scale. Falling from 48 MPs to just 9, they endured 38 losses in a nicht o' the lang dirks.

Police investigations, internal disunity, mounting policy failures on bread and butter issues and distraction on divisive gender politics. The causes for their defenestration are many and will be mulled over extensively. Their hope had been their new leader John Swinney would draw a line under their bleeding in the polling, but many internally will undoubtedly fret that he should have drawn the line a bit higher than nine.

But one key takeaway from the General Election in Scotland is surely how much worse it could have been. Fact is, the SNP came perilously close to 4 or even a mere 3 MPs in Westminster.

Reform letting the SNP in by the back door

It is inescapable that Reform were a decisive wrecking ball for Scottish Conservative (and in places, Scottish Labour) hopes.

In Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey the SNP majority was just 1,001 over Tories. In that constituency the Reform vote was 3,490.

The same story can be seen elsewhere such as in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. SNP majority of 942 over Tories. Once again, the Reform vote was greater than the margin of victory (5,562)

Aberdeen North witnessed a nationalist majority of 1,760, this time over Labour. And the Reform vote? 3,781.

An unavoidable pattern is emerging from the results.

In the city of the three ‘J’s’, SNP blushes were spared on the night, as the nationalists defied the exit poll and MRP predictions in Dundee Central. The incumbent clung on with 675 over Labour. The Reform vote was 2,363.

The other Dundee seat - Arbroath and Broughty Ferry - saw Reform collect 3,800 while the SNP fought off Labour by a mere 859 votes.

Scottish Conservative MSP Craig Hoy had been warning anyone who might listen that “voting Reform risked letting the SNP sneak in through the back door” in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. But the numbers demonstrate Mr Hoy was much more correct than he perhaps realised.

While many had presumed the Reform vote in Scotland would be much less pronounced, the reality has proven the opposite. The insurgent nationalist populist party has had an outsized impact north of the wall despite pocketing marginal shares of the vote.

Reform let the SNP in through the backdoor in 5 seats where the winner’s majority was smaller than their vote share.

In Aberdeen South the picture is Reform as wrecker, helped along by anti-nationalist parties dividing the vote. Labour (11,455), Tory (11,300) and Reform (3,199) all managed to allow the SNP to hold on with a 3,758 majority.

Adding this picture together, it is a reality that had Nigel Farage’s party not fielded pro-independence candidates in key Scottish constituencies the SNP might have finished with 4 or even 3 MPs in total.

Many Scottish voters marking their cross for Reform did so with Farage in mind, but did they realise that Reform Scotland Deputy Chairman is pro-independence and voted SNP for more than 30 years? I doubt they did, and Reform’s pro-Scottish independence candidates in certain seats appear to have worked to salvage the SNP from the brink of electoral oblivion.

Nevertheless, facts remain for the SNP last night was a nicht o' the lang dirks. John Swinney’s leadership team will be facing tremendous pressure internally to account for why their strategy was so woeful.

‘Make Scotland Tory free’ was the initial SNP pitch. ‘Aye, okay’, said the urban central belt as they turned to the Labour party whose whole message was ‘only we can get the Tories out’.

Then the SNP pivoted to ‘vote for us to send a message to Westminster’. That proved equally weak a pitch to voters. ‘No’, retorted Scottish Labour, ‘vote for us and send a government to Westminster’.

Finally the SNP landed on line one, promise one of their election manifesto. They insisted "a vote for the SNP is a vote for independence." They explicitly campaigned on the basis "Independence is on the ballot paper". That floundered as quickly as their previous messaging efforts.

I reckon many Scots were voting against the SNP and their woeful Holyrood record as much as a desire to get the Conservatives out in London.

Where does the SNP go from here? The time is running out fast for Honest John.

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