Lacking candour
When asked to provide the receipts justifying lockdown measures, this SNP led government is lacking the necessary candour
A critical ingredient for any government pandemic policy is public confidence. Where the voters trust those deciding policy measures are doing so fully equipt with the necessary facts. But that public trust is a fragile thing, and if taken for granted can have serious consequences for those governing
On December 14th, the first minister began outlining why she viewed new year lockdown restrictions as inevitable. Explaining that Scotland was facing off against a likely “tsunami” of new infection due to the omicron variant. She told us that this would mean “very significant” impact on Scotland’s national health service.
Specifically pointing to the fact omicron is more infectious than the previous delta variant, it would mean more infections and (in her view) an inevitable uptick in hospitalisations due to this covid variant.
“That means if just one person in a gathering is infectious, that person is likely to infect many more people in the group than was the case with the Delta variant”.
However that was on the 14th. That was before a whole series of studies were published revealing that although omicron was more infectious than delta, it was also less likely to hospitalise. These studies place the spread between 40-70% less likely to hospitalise as compared to delta.
This all damages Nicola Sturgeon’s underlying justification for locking down at new year. She explained explicitly on the 14th that the lockdown was necessary because the greater infectiousness would inevitably mean major spikes in hospitalisations.
And let us be fair for a moment. Even with the new science that omicron is less likely to hospitalise; if enough people catch the new variant there would still be a hospitalisation uptick. After all 5% of 100,000 is inevitably larger than 5% of 50. So perhaps despite the new variant being less likely to hospitalise wouldn’t necessarily mean no unsustainable NHS pressures?
If this reasonable assumption is granted to the SNP led government, then we should be seeing hospitalisation upticks due to covid, and the Scottish Government should not only have the statistics to hand but be eager to publish them.
So why won’t they?
Here is Humza Yousaf, Health Secretary speaking to Martin Geissler on the BBC’s ‘The Nine’ on the 29th December. The Health Secretary is explaining that he will not commit to publishing the data concerning how many patients are being hospitalised due to covid immediately as opposed to patients hospitalised with an incidental covid status
So the SNP led government is refusing to commit to the immediate publication of data concerning which patients are being hospitalised due to covid as opposed to those being hospitalised for other reasons; only discovering later they have covid (the so-called ‘incidental covid hospitalisations)
Now Mr Yousaf’s answer for not immediately publishing the data is troubling for two reasons:
He's implying the data isn't reliable or robust enough to be made public.
Where Mr Yousaf says he needs to check to see if the data is “good”. But wait a minute, that data is informing SNP policy right now, so if it isn't robust enough for publication that's troubling.
We have a right to know this information, especially if the public is to have any confidence in ScotGov pandemic policy. And Mr Yousaf's excuse that relevant statistics aren't ready for publication only raises questions as to why they aren't ready for publication. His excuse for refusing to disclose this information has hair-raising implications for quality of SNP policy decision making
His lines about omicron being “new” is completely irrelevant
It doesn't matter if a new strain has appeared. Not least since this is no longer a pandemic, but an endemic scenario at this point. Or putting that another way, covid is always going to be with us, zero-covid is a dead duck strategy. So this is all about managing new variants periodically like we do with the seasonal winter flu.
So ScotGov ought to be distinguishing between patients hospitalised due to covid as opposed to those discovering they have it upon arrival anyway, as a matter of course. That a new variant as broken out is totally irrelevant, the government should be distinguishing between hospitalisations due to covid vs incidental covid hospitalisations routinely anyway.
This is all extremely relevant at the moment, given the SNP have imposed new lockdown restrictions; which have devastated the Scottish hospitality industry. An industry where many thousands (at least) businesses depend on a bumper new year income to survive the slow months of January-March. SNP national lockdown announcements have murdered any chance of many hospitality businesses garnishing the necessary profits to survive the coming slow months.
So when the SNP are refusing to reveal important data about why patients are being hospitalised this all really does smack of politics. It’s almost as if Ms Sturgeon jumped the gun with her lockdown announcement, acting on a hunch that it was inevitable and she just wanted to get in ahead of the prime minister in announcing it.
But while ScotGov refuses to break down the reasons why patients are being hospitalised, we do still have headline statistics concerning hospitalisation more generally. And so-far there is no evidence of an omicron driven spike in hospitalisations…
While we can see an increase in covid infection due to omicron being more infectious (see figure 1 below), we nonetheless aren’t yet witnessing any increase in ICU pressures due to covid (see figure 2 below). Furthermore we can also see that there have been no significant spikes (yet) in the daily numbers of people being hospitalised with covid (see figure 3 below).
Now, let’s pause on figure 3, because some will - fairly - point out that that is only dealing with early December. Perhaps by December 31st there is an uptick in patients entering hospital with covid? Well, to answer your fears, I can just quote the first minister to you:
It is encouraging that...rise in cases experienced over last few weeks has not translated into a corresponding rise in hospital admissions or occupancy. On the contrary, the number of people in hospital with covid has so far remained broadly stable"
That was Nicola Sturgeon on the 29th of December telling the public hospitalisation of patients with covid has remained “broadly stable”. So, in her own words, no significant uptick in hospitalisations according to the first minister for the whole of December.
Now, drinking in all of this evidence we return to a central question: why is the Scottish Government refusing to tell us how many of these patients who are being hospitalised with covid are being hospitalised BECAUSE/DUE TO covid itself, and how many are being hospitalised for other reasons only later discovering they have covid?
It’s all quite suspicious dear readers, isn’t it?
No major upticks in hospitalisations. No statistics breaking down the hospitalisations of patients with covid…yet ScotGov is insisting they have the data, that it’s good enough to inform their policy thinking…just not good enough for it to be subject to public scrutiny.
It’s almost as if they’re hiding something…perhaps the receipts that they’ve throttled Scottish hospitality for no scientifically justifiable reason. Heaven forbid that the (self described) ‘chief mammy’ might be found wanting in a comparison with the clownish Boris Johnson for once.
But let’s make that comparison, at least concerning who is being hospitalised and what it can tell us.
In England the proportion of incidental Covid admissions has risen to a record 29%. What that this means is admissions for Covid are far lower than the headline figures suggest. It also signals that lots of people might only be catching covid after intering hospital (and are thus hospitalised with covid).
The Chief Executive of NHS Providers (England) Chris Hopson, is telling us all not to over-interpret data showing rise in Omicron hospital admissions. Why?
Because an increase in hospitalisations could be explained by people without Covid symptoms going into hospital for other reasons but testing positive during their stay. And this is from the chief executive of NHS Providers, representing hospitals and other trusts in England. Mr Hopson also said that while in England there has been an increase in covid cases, these numbers are “are not going up in an exponential way”.
He explained to Sky News:
“As the number of cases in the community rises, we are definitely seeing more people who’ve got incidental Covid,”
“In other words, people who haven’t got symptoms have come in for something else and then when they come into hospital, they’re testing positive.
“So what our chief executives are saying is just be careful about over interpreting the data.”
So, again, this raises the question why the SNP are refusing to publish data relating to all of this for Scotland? And why are we not insisting the SNP immediately publish the data?
So I have a few questions for the Scottish Government:
How many patients hospitalised in Scotland are due directly to covid vs those hospitalised for other reasons?
How many of these incidental covid hospitalisations are catching covid IN HOSPITAL?
How many already had it upon entry but didn't realise?
We have a right to know the answers to these questions and Mr Yousaf's excuse that relevant statistics aren't ready for publication only raises questions as to WHY they aren't ready for publication. We cannot have confidence in SNP pandemic policy without full transparency (something they seem to be habitually allergic to).
If ScotGov has the data, but aren't ready to publish, is this because they have concerns it isn't reliable enough for public consumption? If it isn't fully verified and accurate enough for public viewing, then it bloody well shouldn't be informing SNP lockdown policy
And it is comforting to see the opposition politicians are catching on and beginning to ask the correct questions…a pity too many journalists aren’t. But then, the whole subject of Scottish ‘access journalism’ is a topic for another occasion.
Sources:
Very handy to have a compliant Press, somehow shy to ask the probing question? Whatever could be the reason for pulling punches? Almost as if the SNP 'bribed' the Press - with some £3M - for that special treatment?
We'll see how long the imposter can walk the high-wire - she's teetering, badly, at the moment. I've personally lost count of the number of times I've heard; 'People are fed-up with it all', and they're not pointing to the health effects of Covid when making that statement, they generally qualify their ire by giving the first minister her character - they instinctively recognise the charlatan as completely disingenuous.
I'll assume the sturgeon statement of 29th of December - I refuse to watch her - is the same one where the many disgruntled who also didn't see it asked; "What did she say?" and the response was a resounding "Nothing". I'll also assume the same statement prompted the retorts from many; 'That announcement could easily have been made by the Health Sec - it's all about her'.
I hope the little perjurer had a lousy Christmas, and will know only a miserable 2022.
Good article.