Jam, Jute and Journalism
The SNP face an uphill struggle to retain Dundee and wider urban Scotland amid a Labour resurgence. Just what has went wrong in the nationalists' 'yes city'?
DUNDEE put the SNP on the political map in Scotland, 2003-2005 successes proved they were more than just ‘tartan Tories’. Capturing the two urban constituencies, the nationalists quickly turned what had been a Scottish Labour fiefdom into their premier asset.
One of the key figures in creating a ‘fortress Tayside’ redoubt for his party is outgoing MP Stewart Hosie. Retiring from the Commons after representing Dundee East since 2005, he nevertheless has lots on his plate.
As SNP campaign director, Mr Hosie has the uphill task of attempting to retain ‘yes city’ from a resurgent Scottish Labour campaign. It’s fair to say, he has a substantial task on his hands if latest polling is to be believed.
Ipsos UK MRP has both Dundee constituencies ‘too close to call’ and another suggests both are going Labour.
Hosie makes few bones about his party taking “a dunt” over the “last 18 months”, but nevertheless insists the voters will “keep the faith”. His confidence stems from an insistence that Scots are believing SNP campaign messaging that both Labour and Tory are “threatening to privatise the NHS”
Unfortunately for Mr Hosie, hypocrisy is a lot like plastic surgery - it's incredibly obvious when it's poorly done.
Voters are savvier than politicians think
Dundee can see what the wider Scottish electorate can, SNP efforts to paint Labour and Conservative as one-and-the-same is not cutting through.
Hosie’s efforts to paint Labour and Tories as both plotting to privatise the NHS reeks of the stale ‘red Tories’ epithet. It might have packed a punch in 2007, but it isn’t buttering any parsnips today.
When the SNP campaign director tells voters Labour and Tory represent a status quo, it isn’t communicating what is hoped. The nationalists have enjoyed devolved power for 17 uninterrupted years and if anyone reeks of continuity it’s likely themselves. But more challenging, the SNP historically struggled for relevance in UK General Elections and it’s doubly so today when there is a very real chance of a Labour government.
Stewart Hosie might not detect any difference between Labour and Conservative, but his voters almost certainly can. Knock on a few doors in The City of the three J’s (jam, jute and journalism) and see what Dundonians tell you. I guarantee it won’t be Hosie’s shoulder shrug of ‘they’re all the same’.
When nationalists insist Labour and Tory are interchangeable and only they speak to the left of centre spirit, his voters hear them saying ‘we don’t care if the Tories retain power’.
If the MRP polling is to be believed, a significant chunk of 2019 SNP voters are set to break for Labour across urban Scotland. In short, they want a change of British government and - unlike Hosie’s SNP - realise voting Labour is the only way to obtain this.
Falling from grace
But as I touched on, the SNP have been governing Scotland at Holyrood for 17 years. Yes, this is a Westminster election, but a desire to ‘get the Tories out’ is merely part of the crisis for the SNP.
Scotland is in visible decline. Infrastructure is crumbling, whether it be potholed roads turning the school run into a slalom race. In education, successes such as reducing class sizes have gone into reverse. In 2007 the average primary class size was 22.8 but as 2023 it was 23.2.
Healthcare infrastructure is no different. Stewart Hosie’s dire warnings about Labour and Tories “threatening to privatise the NHS” smells of hubris. That sort of complacency that often comes before a fall from grace.
Scottish families comprehend well enough who is to blame for the stunning growth in private healthcare in Scotland.
Let the facts speak for themselves.
At the outset of devolution, Scottish health spending per person was approximately 22 per cent higher than health spending in England.
In 2007, when Alex Salmond was installed by Annabel Goldie’s Scottish Tories into Bute House, Scotland was still spending 17 per cent more per head on health than in England. Under Salmond, Sturgeon, Yousaf and now Swinney that figure has collapsed to only 3 per cent per head.
If anyone is responsible for driving the growth of private healthcare in Scotland, it has been the SNP administration. Stewart Hosie might insist the pitch his side “is a strong one for Dundee and Scotland”, but polling suggests voters aren’t being fooled.
You can fool some of the people some of the time, but never all of the people all of the time. Political gravity is finally catching up with the SNP and if Dundee falls to Labour so might Holyrood in a few years time.
My work is entirely reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber
Alternatively why not make a one-off donation? All support is appreciated
It probably will if you offer SNP voters a referendum. For all the smug and premature commentary on the SNPs demise, Scottish Labour will do well to remember that 50% still want independence.