Is the first minister losing the room?
As the year comes to a close, Scottish political tracker polling suggests Nicola Sturgeon is a fading star
December 2020 unarguably saw Nicola Sturgeon at the zenith of personal popularity and power, having led Scotland through a torrid first pandemic year. But the mood has shifted as 2021 approaches its terminal egress, amid faltering favourability and public perceptions
SavantaComRes polling has been tracking Scottish public attitudes to the various party leaders (and governments). Usefully the sample sizes are robust, the questions consistent and the methodology the same. Using this treasure trove of polling data it is possible to identify precisely how Scottish voters views have been shifting throughout this pandemic.
This lends us all an insight, more nuanced that simple headline voting intentions or elections can provide. What the polling reveals is a surprising trajectory of declining personal numbers for the first minister, the Scottish Government throughout the entirety of 2021.
SavantaComRes | Scotland Tracker | December 17 2020
According to figure 1 (above), Nicola Sturgeon finished her year with a deeply impressive +28% net favourability. Easily the most popular politician in Scotland, she was also significantly more popular than the Scottish Government (+17%) she led. Undoubtedly, the first minister finished 2020 as the principle asset for her party’s future electoral chances. Absolutely no other party leader either at Scottish or British level came close to challenging her.
This is Nicola Sturgeon’s zenith of personal power and popularity. Voters praised her handling of the health pandemic, the BBC provided her with a regular TV platform for briefings and the press acknowledged the uniqueness of the crisis she faced.
SavantaComRes Favourability Scottish Tracker Changes | Dec 2020-Oct 2021
Looking more broadly, as we examine the SavantaComRes trackers (shown figure 2) for Ms Sturgeon and the Scottish Government over 2021 we see interesting changing patterns. First, Nicola Sturgeon’s personal appeal helps to improve perceptions of the Scottish Government overall. But as her numbers fall over the course of 2021, those of the Scottish Government falls even further.
In fact, the fate of the Scottish Government at Holyrood seems unhealthily tied indelibly with the fate of the incumbent first minister. She becomes more popular? So does ScotGov, she becomes less popular? So does ScotGov. But at all times ScotGov is always seen less favourably when compared to her personal numbers.
The Anas Sarwar numbers shown in figure 2 are more complicated, he became Scottish Labour leader very late in the day before the May 2021 election. So clearly he had a very positive audition going from -7% (Feb 11) to a +11% (May 5th). But why the drop off since May? One possible explanation is that Mr Sarwar has simply not had the public profile since the election. Nicola Sturgeon’s incumbency advantage coupled with greater resources and ability to dominate pandemic orientated news cycles gives her a platform much bigger than Labour’s leader. Put simply, Mr Sarwar has been potentially drowned out.
His dip since May should not, however, be a cause for panic for Labour folk. Not least since in the October numbers he has a considerable number of people saying they neither feel favourably nor unfavourably toward him. Indeed SavantaComRes 28th October poll finds a whopping 37% saying this. Compare this to Nicola Sturgeon, who only has 14% claiming to neither feel favourably or unfavourably toward her. Indeed, October’s numbers reveal only 1% have never heard of Nicola Sturgeon, whereas Anas Sarwar has 15% claiming not to have heard of him.
Mr Sarwar has every opportunity to shape voter perceptions of him, voters views are open for him to shape. Whereas with the first minister, she is a much more polarising figure - people know precisely what they think of her. It is worth emphasising that the only point during 2021 when Mr Sarwar had an opportunity to be seen on the same stage as Ms Sturgeon - the May election -his favourability score nearly caught Ms Sturgeon. His tracked up as the public saw him more, Ms Sturgeon’s tracked down the more the public saw her.
But could Scottish Labour translate Sarwar’s appeal into support for their party? That remains far from certain. But SLabour’s challenge of translating a relatively popular leader into support for their party is a much friendlier task than that facing the SNP; who face an increasingly unpopular leader pushing down their party.
As for the Conservatives, it is fascinating that the most popular high profile Conservative is not the party leaders Boris Johnson or Douglas Ross. It is actually Rishi Sunak. And despite having made controversial policy choices - as as withdrawing the temporary Universal Credit uplift - he is still seen more favourably than Boris or Ross.
The less said for how Scots see the UK Government the better. Suffice, the extremely negative numbers speak for themselves in figure 2. The Scottish Government undoubtedly benefits from looking better by comparison in the minds of many Scottish voters.
SavantaComRes Scotland Tracker | Characteristics associated with Nicola Sturgeon
Figure 3 provides some explanation as to why the first minister’s overall net favourability has been dipping, according to SavantaComRes data.
The first minister over the course of the time-period in question (Dec 2020-Oct 2021) is viewed by the Scottish electorate as being less trustworthy (50% do apply in Dec 20 declining to 46% by Oct 21). At the same time the percentage associating her as ‘divisive’ increases (55% in Dec 20 rising to 59% Oct 21).
Equally interesting is the decline in the number of voters associating the characteristic ‘understands people like me’ (58% Dec 20 declines to 54% Oct 21). Meanwhile fewer people are seeing Nicola Sturgeon as ‘genuine’, another word for ‘sincere’ (57% Dec 20 down to 51% Oct 21).
Figure 3 shows us that the first minister continues to be seen as intelligent, ‘charismatic’ and ‘strong’. However, fewer people are seeing her as ‘genuine’, ‘trustworthy’ or understanding people like them. All whilst she has come to be strongly associated with the characteristic ‘divisive’.
These findings do not augur well for the first minister. It leaves her vulnerable to opposition politicians preaching a need for less division, more consensus. Additionally should an opposition party or leader succeed in convincing Scottish voters they understands ordinary voters well, Ms Sturgeon could find herself in trouble.
What has not helped how the first minister is seen by voters is surely how she interacts with journalists at covid briefings…
Covid Briefing Press Conference, 27th July 2021 - “I kind of communicate at a level where I assume a certain level of intelligence”
Covid Briefing Press Conference, 17th Dec 2021 - “I don’t know if you’ve listened to a single word I’ve said!”
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