Exploiting the politics of crisis
The crises of brexit and pandemic rescued the SNP, and bought its independence cause and leadership more time. But it hasn't taken them where they wanted to go.
The politics of crisis has proven essential for Nicola Sturgeon’s nationalism, but it has only served to buy time. Political gravity beckons, and ticktock goes the political clock.
The 2017-2018 period revealed a Scotland beginning to get tired of the SNP and its nationalism, but what rescued the whole scene for the SNP was the arrival of brexit, and especially the political chaos in Westminster throughout 2019 as the UK parliament effectively ceased to function. The arrival subsequently of the covid health pandemic further buttressed a re-inflated SNP.
It is important to cast your mind back to the 2017-2018 period, otherwise you would not realise the troubles the SNP, its leadership and its independence cause had fallen into. 2017 was a year of electoral retreat for the SNP at the local elections. It also witnessed the beginning of a personal slide in the first ministers ratings, which would by mid 2018 become net negative. During this period Scottish public support for independence also began to wax and wane. But the political picture prior to 2017-2018 had been remarkably different.
Nicola Sturgeon’s personal ratings had been stratospheric throughout 2015 and 2016. Looking at YouGov trackers, in May 1st 2015 the first minister scored 75% approving of her job performance. During this period the SNP demolished the Scottish Labour Party at the 2015 general election, landing 49.97% share of the vote (a swing of 30.1%).
By 2016 Nicola Sturgeon’s YouGov personal numbers were still robust; for example 29th November saw her with 50% ‘well’ vs 39% ‘badly’. During this 2016 period the SNP handily won re-election at Holyrood with 46.5% constituency share of the vote (a +1.1% swing on last time).
But by 2017 the political picture had changed dramatically. Nicola Sturgeon’s personal ratings had collapsed. By October 5th 2017, her positive ratings had evaporated, now showing a 46% vs 46% split on job performance.
And as the first ministers’ numbers slide, so did SNP electoral performance. The May 2017 local elections saw the SNP win only 32.30% first preference votes. Some might point out at this point that local elections traditionally always see lower turnouts compared to national elections such as general elections or Holyrood votes. And there is a truth to this. However, 2017 locals saw a turnout of 46.9%, this was up 7.3%. Plus the June 2017 general election matched SNP’s poor local government performance.
Fact is, the SNP had went from 46.5% in 2016’s May Holyrood vote to just 32.30% by May following year. And that was despite a jump in turnout in the 2017 Scottish local elections. And don’t forget the general election of 2017 too, which saw the SNP’s vote share of 49.97% (2015) disintegrate to just 36.9% - mirroring their local elections result.
And as we all entered 2018, Nicola Sturgeon’s personal numbers had finally slid into net negative territory. June 5th 2018 revealed 47% saying the first minister was doing her job ‘badly’ compared to 45% saying ‘well’. Gone were the days of 75% or 50% deeming her job performance as ‘well’.
Sliding personal ratings for the leader, declining electoral performances by the party - only a political miracle could rescue the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon. Enter brexit and the 2019 era House of Commons.
The sight of a UK parliament incapable of handling the brexit process and a lame-duck PM all massively aided the SNP. For one thing, it rescued Nicola Sturgeon from declining personal numbers. For another, suddenly Scottish independence didn’t look so much of a risk anymore. After all, for some remain voting ‘no’ voters, suddenly brexit had made the UK seem the riskier proposition.
We see all of that impact in the numbers on Scottish independence polling. Compare 2017-2019 with 2020 polling on the indy question and you can see a sustained ‘no’ lead disappear completely. Undoubtedly brexit was the driving factor behind this huge reversal in fortunes for the SNP.
Here is the picture 2017-2018 regarding the constitutional question. Consistent ‘no’ leads of varying sizes across different pollsters.
Now look at 2019-2020, a complete reversal in fortunes as ‘yes’ takes the lead.
Through the whole of 2020 ‘yes’ maintains its new lead. The mishandled 2019 brexit process had significantly contributed to inverting the picture at the expense of ‘no’/pro-UK voters.
And this same time period of 2019-2020 also witnesses Nicola Sturgeon’s own personal ratings recover to the earlier 2015-2016 levels. She secures a whopping 72% of Scots saying she was doing her job ‘well’ by August 10th 2020.
Undoubtedly another aspect to Nicola Sturgeon’s 2020 personal ratings recovery goes beyond the brexit process fallout. The visual comparison of her ‘covid’ briefings on BBC Scotland with Boris Johnson’s bumbling stumbling routine undoubtedly had its propagandistic impact.
These twin crises when taken together - brexit mishandling and covid - clearly reverses nationalist fortunes from late 2019-2020. So it was extremely fortuitous for Nicola Sturgeon that the Holyrood election landed when it did, May 2021 - just the correct time for her to capitalise. The SNP in 2021 secured 47.7% vote share (1.2% swing). I put it to all of you, had brexit not been so catastrophically mishandled by MPs in 2019 (remainers hell bent on trying for a re-run of the referendum, Labour leadership missing the chance of delivering a softer less divisive brexit via voting for Mrs May’s deal) then the SNP’s 2021 Holyrood success would never have happened.
Take away the twin crises of brexit and the pandemic, and you’re left with the 2017-2018 levels of support for Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP and the sustained ‘no’ leads on constitutional polling. Fact is, the SNP have come to heavily depend on this ‘politics of crisis’ to avoid political gravity returning them to their diminished levels of support.
It is with this in mind that as we look forward to the 2022 Scottish local elections, it becomes all the more vital for opposition parties to move the conversation beyond brexit, and beyond the pandemic. If this can be achieved, we might just witness the decline and fall of SNP dominance in Scotland.
Judging by Nicola Sturgeon’s personal ratings, this process is perhaps already beginning to happen… August 2020’s 72% has dropped to 53% by November 21st 2021. YouGov seems to indicate she’s heading back to the negative territory from 2018.
And in case anyone takes issue with YouGov, SavantaComRes Scottish trackers for 2021 show the same picture as YouGov. According to SavantaComRes the first minister enters 2021 with a net favourability of +26% (Jan 14th), but this collapses to just +12 (Oct 28) net favourability. So it isn’t just YouGov showing Nicola Sturgeon’s personal popularity decline as the politics of crisis fades.
Perhaps we’re finally about to return to the normalcy which brexit and the pandemic disrupted? The normal of 2017-2018 where Scotland had clearly begun to have had enough with the SNP, Sturgeon and independence wrangling.
Tick tock goes the political clock.
Sources:
YouGov’s political tracker 2015-2021 Nicola Sturgeon: ‘Do you think Nicola Sturgeon is doing well or badly as First Minister?’
SavantaComRes Scottish Political Trackers: can all be found in the online archive