Economic realities against the politics of the 'big lie'
The SNP are relying on the politics of the big lie in place of any credible economic prospectus on independence.
The GERs denialism, the dismissal of Quantitative Easing as a policy tool, the pretence that Sterlingisation means a stable, calm transition to independence - it’s all wrapped up in the politics of the ‘big lie’.
It represents a big lie because you have to disbelieve all manner of evidence to believe in it. GERs statistics demonstrating that Scotland has a budget deficit? Deny them, imply the statistical evidence is bogus.
A survey commissioned by These Islands revealed the staggering scale of disbelief in objectively true evidence. 57% of Scottish independence supporters agreed with the statement “The figures used to calculate Scotland’s deficit (the GERS figures) are made up by Westminster to hide Scotland's true wealth”
But this disbelief in GERs statistics, a belief that they’re just made up by Westminster, is in defiance of the fact that the figures are compiled for the Scottish Government, at its own request. A fact not lost on These Islands Chair Kevin Hague
“the figures are produced at the request of the Scottish Government (not Westminster), are compiled by Scottish Government economists in St Andrew’s House and pass the stringent tests required to qualify for National Statistics status.”
Given that it was 29 years since the GERs figures were “tory created”, we have witnessed two decades of devolution and 14 years of SNP governance. It is ludicrous to pretend that the evidence shown by GERs - of a Scottish deficit, of benefiting from fiscal transfers thanks to the union - are somehow engineered to do down Scotland.
But remember, you have to disbelieve all manner of evidence to believe in the nationalist big lie.
Further examples of disbelief in evidence involves the SNP’s sterlingisation policy. Do they face up to the fact that no developed economy has ever adopted the currency of another country risk free? No - they double down on the pretence Sterlingisation means a risk free economic transition to independence.
The SNP Sterlingisation policy, putting things simply, means Scotland would informally continue to use the Pound after independence. But without having any Central Bank as lender of last resort. It also means monetary policy would be set by the Bank of England, a central bank of a by then foreign country. Furthermore, it would mean a loss of quantitative easing policy powers. But the SNP leadership have taken to disbelieving in any of these facts.
Nicola Sturgeon herself has engaged in disbelief in evidence, as she tries to pretend sterlingisation would not leave us in the same or similar position to Panama
“If Scotland was to use the pound outwith a currency union, even for a transitionary period, I don’t think it puts us in the same position as Panama for example.”
Now Panama is a country that has its own currency called the Panamanian Balboa (PAB). It is permanently tied to the US Dollar, having the same value every time. Panama also has the US Dollar as another official currency.
It is self evidently the case that sterlingisation - Nicola Sturgeon’s own policy position - would place an independent Scotland into a position extremely similar if not the same as Panama. But the first minister insists on disbelieving evidence.
Even Dr Tim Rideout has pointed out evidence that Ms Sturgeon insists on disbelieving. Dr Rideout is the ‘Convener of the Scottish Currency Group, Lothians Member of the SNP Policy Development Committee’, and has stated
“I hope the sterlingisation zombie now has a stake through the heart.”
He has also commented elsewhere that
“No advanced economy has ever sought to use the currency of another nation…To try to do so would be to start probably the most dangerous experiment in global monetary history.”
It is to Dr Rideout’s credit that he accepts this reality, sterlingisation is ludicrous. But Ms Sturgeon insists on disbelief, claiming that
“The pound is Scotland’s currency right now, the pound as everybody knows is a fully tradeable international currency.
“There is absolutely nothing to stop Scotland using the pound and it would be a continuation of what we do right now.”
Nothing to stop us? Except that your own Policy Development Committee convenor is calling it “the most dangerous experiment in global monetary history”. Other economists such as Ronald McDonald, research professor of macroeconomics and international finance at Glasgow University’s Adam Smith Business School is even more stark
“By adopting the currency of another country you really are fixing your currency against that currency. And you have got no means of adjustment.
"That is not tenable for an independent country.
"I have argued separately that it could lead to bankruptcy.
"They haven't thought through the macroeconomic framework.”
But Nicola Sturgeon insists “There is absolutely nothing to stop Scotland using the pound”, regardless of all evidence. But then, remember, you have to disbelieve all manner of evidence to believe in the nationalist big lie.
This need to disbelieve evidence also features in the new antics by Finance Secretary Kate Forbes, where she actually insists on pretending that losing Quantitative Easing powers wouldn’t be a problem. Listen below to her question at ‘The Royal Society of Edinburgh’ on Thursday December 2nd 2021…
Quantitative Easing (QE) is how we got out of the financial crisis. It is also how we are currently paying for furlough and assorted other pandemic era spending. According to the Bank of England, approximately £895 billion worth of bonds were bought via QE, most of it UK Government bonds.
QE helps pay for government borrowing. QE lowers the cost of borrowing throughout the economy, including for the government. That’s because one of the ways that QE works is by lowering the bond yield or ‘interest rate’ on UK government bonds.
But Kate Forbes is musing if losing the policy option of QE in pursuit of independence is really such a problem…how incredibly dangerous is that?
Well, if you’re Nicola Sturgeon, not very dangerous - because apparently QE is a ‘tory’ idea…
This politics of the big lie is terrifying, because it insists that nationalists disbelieve in objectively true facts. There will be a cost to all of this for Scotland.
But the politics of the big lie works only because you have to believe in a mammoth conspiracy in order to believe it.
And what is a bigger, more mammoth conspiracy theory than Kate Forbes argument that a Scottish deficit of 22.4% (£36.3bn) actually doesn’t exist?
“I balance my budget every year, so I only spend on an annual basis what I raise or receive, which is totally at odds with nearly every other government around the world. You cannot have a deficit if you cannot borrow for day-to-day spending.”
But…that deficit Kate Forbes says doesn’t exist? Well she insists that it doesn’t exist…but strengthens the case for independence at the same time…
“The SNP Finance Secretary insisted that Scotland having a £36.3billion deficit last year was “not an obstacle” to making the case for leaving the UK.”
You have to believe in a huge lie, a conspiracy theory where GERs figures showing a deficit are just Westminster fabrications…unless you can twist it into somehow furthering ‘the cause’.
And it's a big lie because, if you believe it, it demands you take radical action. A lie of Scotland being economically exploited, misled by dodgy facts and bogus statistics. All demanding some form of direct action. Such as a first minister suggesting she would not “shy away” from imposing quarantine restrictions on English folk entering Scotland. An action she justified on the basis that Scotland somehow had a lower virus rate than the English - a claim that was inaccurate and unverified.
Action such as pro-independence protesters travelling to the ‘border’ in hazmat suits to hold up signs reading “England. Get out of Scotland” and “keep Scotland covid free”.
So now, in this sad story we have travelled forwards towards authoritarianism and away from democracy. The dog whistles now suggesting the English are coming to Scotland on ‘staycation's’ and spreading disease. That Scottish Government collected GERs statistics are all just ‘tory created’ lies. That Sterlingisation means a smooth transition - despite what leading economist all insist.
The politics of the ‘big lie’ (große Lüge in German) involves never admitting wrong, never backing away and most importantly do not ever let the public cool off. Concentrate on the one enemy, and blame that one enemy for everything that goes wrong. Now we enter the world of national populism, the politics of protecting ‘our people’ from the distant corrupt elites - in this instance ‘Westminster’ and ‘the tories’.
And why do all of this? Independence. The big lie is justified in the minds of those who are fully committed to their ‘cause’. No matter the harm this inflicts on Scottish democracy and liberal values.
But then, maybe I’m too stupid to see things as they really are? After all, our first minister is known to “kind of communicate” “at a level where” she assumes “a certain level of intelligence”. Guess everything I’m witnessing is just my lying eyes.
The politics of the SNP’s ‘big lie’: you have to disbelieve all manner of evidence to believe in it. You have to believe in a mammoth conspiracy in order to believe it. You believe it, it demands you take radical action. You travel forwards towards authoritarianism and away from democracy.
Sources:
Telegraph ‘Doubts cast over Sturgeon's claim that virus rate 'five times' lower in Scotland’
Scotsman ‘Activists hold up banner saying 'England get out of Scotland' at border during protest’
Telegraph ‘Nicola Sturgeon: I will not shy away from imposing quarantine on English visitors to Scotland’
These Islands ‘GERS FIGURES DON'T LIE, DESPITE WHAT INDEPENDENCE SUPPORTERS SAY’
These Islands ‘SCOTTISH POLITICS IN THE GRIP OF A FACT-DENIAL EPIDEMIC’
Dr Tim Rideout’s tweet ‘I hope the sterlingisation zombie now has a stake through the heart.’
John Ferry in The Spectator ‘The SNP’s desperate bid to save sterlingisation’
Express ‘Nicola Sturgeon crushed as own advisors 'not crazy enough to back SNP's currency plan’’
Scotsman ‘Nicola Sturgeon: Independent Scotland with pound wouldn't be Panama’
Bank of England ‘What is quantitative easing?’
Scotsman ‘Budget: Kate Forbes under fire after insisting Scotland has no financial deficit’
The Herald ‘Kate Forbes: record deficit 'strengthens' case for independence’