Don't go expecting downfall quite yet
Scottish voters are still opting for the SNP establishment ahead of the local elections next year, but their doubts about the SNP & first minister are growing
Scottish voters have often been very quick to identify the flaws in Westminster politicians, but curiously blind to Nicola Sturgeon's foibles and shortcomings. But as the year closes on 2021 the polling suggests the first minister has lost her Teflon quality. Yet, Scottish voters still seem inclined to keep voting SNP despite growing doubts.
In the week before Christmas, December 17th to be exact, a journalist for the Scottish Daily Mail Michael Blackley asked the first minister if she had any plans to relax or ease the self-isolation restrictions and if any additional funding support for the stricken hospitality industry could be found. The response he received - best described as ungracious, worst downright rude -from the first minister was an admonishment. Deriding the idea of reducing self-isolation time from ten to seven days, Ms Sturgeon snapped “I don’t know if you’ve listened to a single word I’ve said”. She went on to demand the journalist tell her where she should find money for additional covid support, “I don’t know where you think I should take it from”, listing a few options such as the health service, education, justice.
Putting aside the first minister’s nonsense claim that she has to work with a “fixed budget” (untrue, ScotGov has powers to borrow for capital purposes), the interesting thing was what happened after December 17th. Within a week the first minister was able to find both an additional £100m for businesses and outlined a willingness to assess when and how best to cut self-isolation times from ten to seven. What a difference one week makes…
This strange series of events passed by all too many newspapers and television journalists. Had it been Boris Johnson dismissing or haranguing journalists for suggesting ideas he would within a week go on to do, people would take note. But when such foibles and flaws come from Nicola Sturgeon all too often folk simply do not notice.
After all, here was a first minister who claimed she had no money to provide additional covid support…but had an underspend of £580m for 2020-21. And specifically in the transport portfolio, at least £75m of covid allocated mitigation support for bus operators and concessionary travel recipients went unspent by April 2021. But curiously none of this is noticed by all-too-many journalists. Instead the first minister derides journalists who work for newspapers she dislikes, makes untrue statements about having ‘fixed budgets’ and u-turns within a week…and it barely makes for a news headline.
But whilst the commentariat might be missing all of this, it is clear the Scottish voters are slowly catching on. For example, YouGov polling has shown a precipitous decline in the percentage of Scottish voters who do not see the SNP government in Holyrood as ‘disreputable’ or ‘very sleazy’. Back in October 2015 a majority of the electorate did not see the SNP in such a poor light. Fast forward to November 2021 however and a majority of voters either view the SNP as disreputable or are no longer sure what to make of them.
Coupled with that trend, Nicola Sturgeon’s personal negatives keep getting worse. SavantaComRes polling indicates the voters are beginning to associate the first minister with negative characteristics. More voters see Nicola Sturgeon as ‘divisive’ and fewer see her as ‘genuine’, ‘honest’, ‘trustworthy’ or ‘understands ordinary people’.
Perhaps the public are ahead of many commentators in observing the behaviour of the first minister and taking note?
Despite all of this, however, there is not much sign of the SNP facing imminent trouble at any election. In fact, the local elections next May will likely see the SNP make gains, not losses. Their polling position compared to 2017 (last local elections) is considerably stronger. Sir John Curtice notes that
“we should note that while the reported tallies for most parties in the Panelbase poll were not dissimilar to what they were on the first preference vote in 2017, at 45% the SNP tally was 13 points up on the party’s support in 2017. We should bear in mind too that in the UK election that took place just a month after the 2017 local elections, support for the SNP was, at 37%, well below what it is now. As things stand at present, next year’s local elections could well witness significant SNP gains, a prospect that the party might hope would lend some impetus to its independence campaign.”
So it’s a curiosity. Voters are starting to notice and pick up on Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP’s shortcomings, whereas too many journalists are not. The electorate is slowly beginning to see the governing SNP and its leadership in increasingly negative light…but still it isn’t likely to hurt them at the ballot box. Why is this?
The hope for a second independence referendum. When 2023 comes and goes, and there is no referendum. And the SNP try and pitch a ‘one more mandate’ line at the 2024 general election, only then might nationalist voters begin to realise they are being had. The carrot on the end of the stick will not fool pro-independence voters forever. And with Anas Sarwar increasingly being seen at least as favourably as the first minister, who knows where things might end up. Might it be that Sarwar ends up being seen as the ‘natural successor’ to Nicola Sturgeon in many voters eyes? Scottish Conservatives might be an opposition party with a high floor, but they also face a low ceiling. There might not be much scope for growth beyond 25-30% of the Scottish electorate. This however isn’t true for Scottish Labour, who face a low floor but a high ceiling. Things could be disastrous for them, but the scope for growth is much larger.
One thing is for sure, those hoping or expecting a defenestration of the Scottish Nationalists at the local elections next May are likely to be disappointed. But the political clock is finally ticking on this SNP government, and this first minister. But for the SNP to fail, the opposition parties - especially Scottish Labour - need to start winning over current SNP voters.
Sources
Sir John Curtice, What Scotland Thinks ‘Runes from the Polls as the SNP Meet Again’
Alex Massie, Times ‘Alex Massie: Resolve to hold Nicola Sturgeon to account’