BIG SUNDAY READ: DON'T BELIEVE THE NATIONALIST BLAME GAME AMID NORTH LANARKSHIRE CUTS
Eleventh hour SNP cuts to North Lanarkshire summer activity programmes for deprived kids is the result of poor choices at Holyrood, not due to a big bad boy called 'London'
North Lanarkshire Council (NLC) has revealed the Scottish Government (ScotGov) has ceased funding summer activity programmes for schools. Apparently NLC was only made aware of the ScotGov decision on June 7th, the day before the Council’s Policy & Strategy Committee was due to meet. All the more troubling is that this eleventh hour decision by the SNP to yank funding has left NLC with the need to find £765,000 by June 22nd (a week before the start of the school holidays) or withdraw the programmes from the deprived kids.
Naturally when I read about this I decided to go forth and make some enquires with some of the Councillors of North Lanarkshire. And what I found was a replication of previous experiences writing about SNP cuts imposed on local authorities; a story of SNP cuts and attempts to deflect blame elsewhere.
SNP Councillor Kirsten Larson (Coatbridge North) contended that the Scottish Government faces the same challenges as the council and their budget was restricted by Westminster. But her insistence that a bad boy called London did it and ran away seems to have buttered few parsnips with fellow North Lanarkshire councillors…
When I approached Scottish Labour Councillor Andrew Duffy-Lawson (Motherwell North) for comment he questioned the veracity of the nationalist buck passing claims. Cllr Duffy-Lawson, Vice Convener of Education, Children & Families in North Lanarkshire, wondered whether Cllr Larson could “substantiate the claim given Barnett gives more per head than England, Wales and Northern Ireland”.
Unfortunately Cllr Larson has not proven particularly forthcoming with any examples which may lend credibility to her claim that Westminster’s cuts are forcing the SNP hand in Scotland. But if we take the time to look carefully at what we do know, we can see myriad ways the SNP have mishandled the finances and driven the fiscal car into a ditch all on their own, and without the help of that big bad boy called London.
Foreign affairs adventurism…
If we factor in Scottish Government external affairs spending it’s easy to sympathise with Cllr Duffy-Lawson’s view that blaming “Westminster isn’t cutting any mustard”. SNP predilection for funding external affairs activities at taxpayer expense is something previously documented. In April 2021 I recall writing a piece for Think Scotland documenting £44m of Scottish Government spending on foreign policy adventurism. That was then and little has changed in the meantime.
The SNP have a history of ensuring funds are available for their increasingly global network of ‘Innovation and Development Hubs’ despite the fact it represents duplication given the pre-existing work undertaken by Scottish Development International (SDI). For those who don’t know, SDI is the international arm of the Scottish Government and Scotland’s enterprise agencies. And since 2001, SDI has operated a large global trade network of small offices. So, the entire rationale for these ‘Innovation and Development’ Hubs makes even less sense considering the pre-existing mandate of SDI.
In reality the Scottish Government’s ‘‘Innovation and Development Hubs’ are given such financial priority despite budget woes at home for the simple reason they’re actually proto-embassies, enabling the Scottish Government to circumvent the constitutional limitations on its powers. The SDI itself gives the game away explaining its support for these ‘Hubs’ on the basis that they allow the SNP government to build “diplomatic government-to-government relations” and “inter-governmental relations with Europe” - despite the reserved nature of foreign affairs. Some argue that inter-governmental dealings with foreign governments the Scottish Executive would wish to have ought to be done through formal means via the UK diplomatic service, but that’d require a constructive relationship between Edinburgh and London, something the SNP don’t wish to see.
In short, this is spending to push the limits on the constitutional constraints by a nationalist government. They think this is money well spent, even if it means cutting funding at home for programmes such as ASN or Club 365.
Yet all this spending to trespass on Westminster’s turf has not resulted in many high-profile successes. The SNP’s ‘Innovation and Development Hub’ in Beijing for example ended with ScotGov getting embroiled in a scandal over ties to firms accused of corruption. One instance was ScotGov insisting on doing a deal with a Chinese firm that an author of a report at the time warned was guilty of “gross corruption”. The Scottish Government via its ‘Hub’ in Beijing push forward regardless, ignoring the linked point that Beijing has a huge interest in disrupting or breaking up one of the key pillars of the western alliance.
But scandals such as the Scottish Government dealing with a blacklisted Chinese firm does not get in the way of the SNP operating this bizarre foreign spending. Nevertheless Cllr Larson would have you believe the cash strapped realities facing the Scottish Government is entirely due to Westminster cuts. Not the frivolous duplicative spending on external affairs, not the dodgy dealings with blacklisted Chinese firms. None of that is a problem at all, not if it’s advancing the nationalist cause by constantly pushing the envelope on where the limitations are on reserved matters.
Scottish Fiscal Commission warnings…
There are very real pressures on the Scottish Government budget, but largely home made despite Cllr Larson’s claims to the contrary. Beyond the foreign policy adventures the SNP have also overspent on social security utilising fresh devolved powers.
Thanks to new powers devolved to Holyrood, the SNP have been able to overhaul how social security is administered in Scotland. They have chosen to expand eligibility as well as reforming how its administered, therefore increasing the overall cost of social security in future Holyrood budgets.
Now, there is nothing wrong with expanding eligibility to social security if you can afford and budget for it. Everybody loves to be kind and generous - especially politicians in liberal democracies hoping to get re-elected.
But the SFC raised questions about how sustainable is the SNP’s largesse was back in 2021. The SFC projected devolved social security spending was set to increase from £4.1bn 2022/23 to £5.5bn in 2025/26, all while tax revenues were short-falling.
Today in the latest SFC reports, we discover their fears were largely vindicated and in fact the unfunded long term SNP social security spending issue has only grown more serious. The SFC explains “Social security spending forecast to increase from £5.3 bn in 2023-24 to £7.8 bn in 2028-29”
In plain English this means the SNP have chosen to spend £1.3bn more on social security than they will get via the Block Grant Adjustment. A choice they made independently of Westminster. The introduction of the Adult Disability Payment was an SNP decision (a good one), but the need to know how to fund a benefit tied not to economic performance but instead demographics was also their responsibility (one they have failed to manage).
The bit I want you to focus on from the figure above is the ‘Adult Disability Payment’ (ADP). It is a valuable benefit that will help many people live more healthy and productive lives in the community. However, it is not related to economic performance, instead relating to demographics. Or put simply, older people are more likely to receive ADP “and therefore a combination of an aging population and increases in the state pension age mean we expect the number of people receiving ADP to increase over the next five years”.
This is worth bearing in mind since increasing eligibility to social security benefits will have significant longer term economic consequences given we are living longer. More people receiving ADP (which is replacing the Personal Independence Allowance) means more people drawing on it and for longer. This is not necessarily a problem … except … it is far from clear the SNP government can afford it.
This is because Scotland receives Block Grant Adjustment (BGA) funding from the UK Government based on spending on the original DWP payments. So the SNP’s newly introduced payments must be met entirely from the Scottish Government budget. It will not be covered by the BGA.
And according to the SFC:
“Combining completely new payments and payments with BGA funding, we expect that by 2026-27 spending on the Scottish Government’s social security benefits will be £760 million more than the corresponding funding received, reducing the funding available for other parts of the Scottish Budget.”
The point here is simple, if you want to know why the Scottish Government is fumbling around desperately for budgets to cut - such as ASN and Club 365 funding, it’s because they have mishandled their tax and spending at Holyrood. Cllr Larson and her SNP colleagues won’t admit this, but the Scottish Fiscal Commission data speaks without their input being required.
A question of underspends…
Then there is the issue of underspend to consider. I recall writing last December about ScotGov underspends undermining the nationalist calls for enhanced borrowing. Fact is, Cllr Larson may insist of blaming Westminster but at home the SNP government has overseen substantial underspends.
For starters, an Audit Scotland report revealed that for the year to March 2022 the “total underspend was £1,988 million”. Put that another way, nearly £2bn in underspend, or 3.88% of the entire Scottish Government budget.
Now naturally underspends are to be expected, the Scottish Government cannot overspend, thus cautionary approaches to spending is to be anticipated. Any administration in Holyrood must adopt a cautious stance, controlling public expenditure to ensure it lives within the budget limits which apply.
Yes, it is true that the nature of the devolutionary settlement means fixed limits, but £2bn out of a £51.2 budget going unspent suggests the problem here is less about the current nature of the constitutional settlement. At least to my eye.
There is the necessity for control to ensure spending is kept to the limits, then there is an abundance of caution which leads to underspends which begin to raise questions about competency and failure.
Looking back at that nearly 4% of the entire ScotGov budget going as underspend to March 2022, the lion’s share of the unspent budget was with education and skills, finance and economy, and net zero, energy and transport. Combined these departmental spheres account for 90% of the £2bn underspend.
But Cllr Larson in North Lanarkshire insists that the problem necessitating cuts to programmes such as ASN or Club 365 is all Westminsters fault. Not due to decisions and competency involving the SNP led Scottish Government. That big bad boy called London really does have a lot to answer for apparently, he can even ensure nearly 4% of the ScotGov budget to March 2022 went unspent by SNP ministers!
In conclusion…
Knowing I have went on long enough, and realising brevity is a charming quality I shall be brief in my concluding remarks.
The experience of North Lanarkshire Council is one many other local governments will inevitably face in coming months and years. The Scottish National Party has mishandled the resources it has been granted by the electorate. Millions of pounds has been spent trying to push the envelope on reserved matters such as external affairs. This has involved duplicative work and sordid dodgy deals with blacklisted Chinese firms.
Poor handling of tax and spending obligations has creating a fiscal hole in national finances, as the Scottish Fiscal Commission has long warned about. This is a home made mess not requiring that big bad bully boy of nationalist imaginings called London. The underspends also indicate self-made messes resting firmly on the SNPs home porch.
All points to an underlying issue of competency, or rather the total absence thereof inside this 16 year long Scottish Government. And the primary pupils of North Lanarkshire who are entitled to free school meals and ordinarily could look forward to Club 365’s fun activities and free lunches at weekends and during the school holidays are the victims. They won’t be the last to suffer the consequences of rampant SNP incompetence and misconstrued concepts of voter priority.
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