BATTLE FOR FIRST MINISTER PUTS INDY SUPPORT AT RISK
Latest polling reveals Labour seen more favourably than SNP, support for SNP and the wider 'yes' movement plummeting; as nationalist race to become First Minister turns vitriolic
NEW polling indicates the race to become First Minister is inflicting lasting damage not just on the SNP, but also on the wider pro-independence movement. It comes as the leadership battle takes a vitriolic nosedive amid increasingly personal infighting.
Independence support falling
Redfield Wilton Strategies has published their latest Scottish opinion tracker, and it will makes for incredible reading.
Asking ‘Would Scottish voters support or oppose a referendum on Scottish independence being held in the next year?’ the survey found nearly half of all Scots opposed the suggestion. At 49%, the number of those opposing a second plebiscite has increased by 6 points since 26-27 November. Support for holding another vote collapsed by 12 points, underscoring the damage current being done to the pro-independence movement by SNP televised infighting.
Also worth noting is the hardly insignificant 23% of 2019 SNP supporters now opposing holding a 2024 independence referendum, up substantially on the November score. Part of the explanation for that could be a growing sense of other priorities should come first mixed with apathy following the scenes playing out in the SNP race for leadership. As STV’s Colin Mackay pressed the three candidates yesterday, nobody has a plan for what to do when Westminster says ‘no’ to another vote (except Ash Regan, but unilateral declarations of independence are just silly).
Support for holding another vote within the next five year timeframe has also collapsed. Asking ‘Would Scottish voters support or oppose a referendum on Scottish independence being held later than a year from now, but within the next five years?’ it found: oppose 44% (+4), Support 37% (-9), Neither 15% (+4).
Opponents of independence should feel very reassured by these findings. However worth also noting is the drop off among 2019 SNP voters. It’s a big problem for whomever will become the next SNP leader (and First Minister) if a growing number of their own voter base no longer feels the independence cause is of pressing importance. If anything growing SNP apathy regarding the need to hold another independence vote within the next five years is mana from heaven for Scottish Labour; a party desperate for the national conversation to move beyond the constitution.
Labour winning back 2014 ‘yes’ voters
Stepping away from the Redfield & Wilton numbers for a moment I should also draw to your attention the fact Scottish Labour is showing signs of also recovering lost 2014 ‘yes’ voters.
I wrote a piece ‘Polling Labour’ recently which explores things in more detail, so I’ll be brief here.
Latest polling reveals 18% of 2014 yes voters currently say their preference is for Labour in any future General Election. Some may scoff, dismissing that 18% as a marginal figure, but you would be wrong to do so. In the autumn of 2021 only 9% of 2014 yes voters were indicating an intention to vote Labour, so the party has succeeded in doubling its support among those who voted yes in 2014.
To tease things out even more, taking just one pollster instead, we can see the scale of Labour’s improvement. In the YouGov poll of May 4th 2021 only 7% of 2014 ‘yes’ voters indicated they would vote Labour in the Holyrood election of that year. Whereas this number leaps to 14% in YouGov’s February 20th 2023 poll.
So whether to measure the overall picture or take out a specific pollster, the picture is entirely clear. Scottish Labour is continuing to slowly recapture support among those who voted ‘yes’ in 2014. Things remain somewhat marginal, but the direction of travel is clear.
Holyrood support collapsing
To make matters even worse for the governing party, Redfield & Wilton also investigated voter preferences for Holyrood. At the risk of repeating myself, this does not make for comfortable reading for the SNP.
I cannot recall the last time I found the SNP polling below 30% in a Holyrood poll since the 2015 General Election year landslide. Some may say, that’s just the list vote and almost all SNP MSPs are constituency representatives but hold on. Even on the constituency side voter support for the ruling party of Scottish politics is also nose-diving. At 40% they are down 8 points and only 11 points in front of a clearly resurgent Scottish Labour beginning - as I’ve shown above - to win back lost ‘yes’ voters.
Surprisingly there is no sign of Alba registering in a significant way with these numbers, although this may change should Ash Regan lose the leadership race and further splits appear within the SNP. The nationalists are not just divided over strategy on independence, the tribe is also deeply split on social and cultural issues such as self-identification and wider issues concerning religion in politics.
All eyes on Westminster
Finally, voter preferences for a future General Election. Headline glance the SNP lead Scottish Labour by 10 points. That would constitute the good news for the nationalists, but diving deeper alarm bells should be ringing in Bute House.
In 2019 (the last General Election), the SNP secured a healthy 45% of the Scottish vote. But now they are only coming in at 39% while Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour has leaped from 19% to 29%. These numbers begin to suggest the SNP are facing an election scenario more akin to 2017 (where the haemorrhaged support and lost 21 MPs on a massive 13.1% swing.
Worse still for whomever succeeds outgoing Nicola Sturgeon, perception of brand SNP has plummeted. The SNP with a net (-1%) has shed 13 points since November’s poll. Scottish Labour is now officially seen more favourably than the SNP in Scotland, such is the harm currently being inflicted on the SNP amid the leadership circus race.
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