ARE YOU CONFIDENT THE SNP WAS BEING RUN PROPERLY?
When you can't trust the governing party to run its own finances, how can you trust them to run a country?
Just take a moment to drink that answer in. Ian Blackford, previously SNP head honcho to the formidably large Westminster SNP Group felt disinclined to say ‘yes, I have confidence in our ability to run our finances’. Instead he rambles on about “corporate governance expectations have changed in all walks of life in the last few years”. It’s all very revealing, not least since my mind immediately flicked back to The Herald’s reporting in 2021 about the leaked SNP internal governance report which revealed internal procedures were being handled in “an ad-hoc” manner.
But then Ian Blackford is retiring - perhaps in part due to the boundary changes leaving his own prospective chances of re-election diminished - so he’s clearly mentally checking out.
And there is growing evidence that the inability to answer a question such as that one by recognisable SNP figures is causing tremendous bleeding in the polls. Sir John Curtice wrote on April 11th, the link between the ‘yes’ vote and the SNP in elections is beginning to fray at the edges to the benefit of Scottish Labour
“Analysing the data by how people voted in 2014 indicates that Labour are at 19% among those who voted Yes, up four points on mid-February, though this has been accompanied by a two point rise among those who backed No. Either way, during the SNP leadership contest Labour advanced at least as strongly, if not more so, among independence supporters than it did among those who would prefer to remain in the UK. This, as we have shown previously, stands in sharp contrast to the pattern of the party’s progress prior to Ms. Sturgeon’s decision to leave the front of the political stage.”
What’s more, Westminster poll preferences also tells the story of substantial declines in SNP fortunes. It wasn’t all that long ago that the nationalist hegemony seemed here to stay, firm as concrete. As recently as 5th December 2022 for Ipsos the SNP were still pulling 51% in the hypothetical vote preference for the next General Election. A figure still in line with the long-term dominance of the SNP in Scotland (they were landing 56% in September 2020), it’s incredible then that their new number is 34% (Panelbase, June 15th 2023).
That they were still securing 51% as recently as Christmas tells you that whatever caused voters to start fleeing the SNP at the polling really began kicking in over the course of this year. Perhaps it’s partly the prospect of a Labour party finally able to actually beat the Tories? One thing is for sure, the SNP’s insistence on trying to label Scottish Labour the ‘red Tories’ is out of time, a rhetorical relic from 2015 no longer playing on the doorsteps. Scottish folks who want a change of government at a UK level are perfectly able to ascertain the difference between a Conservative and Labour government.
When Deidre Brock (MP for Edinburgh North and Leith) rants about ‘red Tories and blue Tories’, it’s more revealing about her than she realises. That she can’t tell the difference between Labour and Tory means they don’t care if the Tories retain power. For middle class liberal voters I talk to, who abandoned Scottish Labour in recent decades, they have picked up on the unintentional confession.
But beyond the struggles of the SNP to find a lane of relevance in any future General Election match-up the elephant in the room is clearly the fraud squad probe into SNP finances and fundraising. It is without any shadow of a doubt the critical factor that has finally begun tipping many Scottish voters over the edge. Yes, cost of living is squeezing and the ferry fiasco is an embarrassment - but those were all still true last year when the nats could still poll above 50%. The change was the blue tent on the former First Minister’s lawn, that image alone underscored and emphasised the scale of the seriousness of the allegations currently being investigated. But even then, polls showed that it was far from clear Scottish Labour had directly benefited, even after Peter Murrell’s arrest (subsequently released without charge subject to further investigation).
As Sir John Curtice wrote on April 27th after the blue tent and Murrell’s arrest,
“According to YouGov, 37% said that they would vote for the SNP in an immediate Westminster election, two points down on the 39% recorded on average in the polls conducted after the leadership election. However, at 28%, support for Labour was as much as four points below that registered in the post-Yousaf success polls. Thus, while the SNP might have lost a little (further) ground in the wake of the adverse publicity about the party’s finances, it was by no means clear from this poll that Labour had benefitted accordingly. (And much the same conclusion could be drawn from the figures for Holyrood vote intention.)”
The straw breaking the camel’s back came when Ms Sturgeon was arrested and questioned. But although the former SNP leader was released without charge subject to further investigation, things finally changed in the polls.
Survation April 3rd the SNP still managed 40% to Labour’s 32%. Fast-forward to June 15th (after Sturgeon’s arrest) and its SNP & Labour on 34%.
So long as the fraud investigation continues, SNP bleeding will likely continue. Who trusts a party to fight for Scotland if they can’t even handle their own party finances? The ongoing fraud squad probe has come to crystallise the fears and unease of many about the basic competency of the now 16 year long SNP government.
The door is finally open for the Labour party in Scotland again, but beware that the uptick in support currently registering is more a tale of voters opting Scottish Labour out of apathy. Anas Sarwar still needs to seal the deal, but as things stand, he’ll never get a better opportunity than right now.
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