A nation in waiting?
The SNP's attempt to link COP26 to independence just exposes their weaknesses, and Nicola Sturgeon's in particular
Nicola Sturgeon has been desperate to appear relevant at COP26. She knows what we all know, that she needs a personal boost. We witnessed the spectacle of our nation’s first minister firing off tweets and publicising photo-ops, all in an effort to prove the Chief Mammy is actually part of the in-crowd. But the truth of the matter is, she urgently needs a political boost. Nicola Sturgeon’s personal numbers have been sliding all year, and there is no discernible movement on the independence question.
Looking at Savanta ComRes Scottish political trackers, we can trace Nicola Sturgeon’s declining favourability score:
Jan 13 2021 | Sum Fav 56%, Sum Unfav 30%, Net Fav 26%
Feb 11 2021 | Sum Fav 56%, Sum Unfav 30%, Net Fav 26%
March 11 2021 | Sum Fav 51%, Sum Unfav 34%, Net Fav 17%
April 8 2021 | Sum Fav 52%, Sum Unfav 32%, Net Fav 20%
April 21 2021 | Sum Fav 53%, Sum Unfav 36%, Net Fav 16%
May 5 2021 | Sum Fav 50%, Sum Unfav 37%, Net Fav 14%
Sept 14 2021 | Sum Fav 51%, Sum Unfav 38%, Net Fav 13%
We can clearly see Nicola Sturgeon’s personal favourability score declined from an impressive net favourable of +26%, down to just +13%. Now +13% is still good given she has been in power for seven years - but if the trend continues she could be hitting net negative some point in the next year. As the Scottish local elections come calling in May, the SNP’s trump card might morph into something of a drag rather than asset.
Furthermore, it’s worth remembering that Nicola Sturgeon polls better than ScotGov does. ScotGov favourability has collapsed from a net favourable of +23% in January to +9% in September.
So the rationale behind the SNP’s decision to link COP26 to the nationalist cause is down to these sliding numbers plus a stalled independence movement. But the problem is, the clever focus-grouped line about “a nation in waiting welcomes the nations of the world” is easily mocked. After all, my first thought was ‘waiting for what?’ Godot?
It’s all quite similar to the first minister’s ‘eye off the ball’ remark, in that it exposes an administration failing domestically.
What I think Scotland is ‘in waiting’ for is an A&E service improving rather than struggling. Scotland has a ‘four hour standard’ where people are admitted, discharged or transferred within four hours. Sadly for Ms Sturgeon, there has been no progress since 2017. In December 31st 2017 we see compliance to the four hour standard was 78.1%. Fast forward to 15th December 2019 the percentage is 78.9%. So on the eve of COVID-19 the SNP had failed to achieve an improvement of even 1% over a two year period. If we look at this measure, we see COVID undoing much of that miniscule SNP progress, with the August 1st 2021 figure at 78.7%.
Perhaps Scotland is a nation in waiting for … access to A&E admission within four hours? Or perhaps securing an ambulance in less than 6 hours? I reckon issues such as these tell the real story behind ScotGov and Nicola Sturgeon’s fading approval ratings.
The sight of the first minister grasping for photo-ops with Greta at the margins of COP26 is somewhat sad. It’s akin to a silent movie star who is desperately seeking out that new role as her star lowly fades. As the times, technologies and culture all slowly changes around her.
And the times have changed around her. She knows it. Perhaps this is why she is entertaining speculative questions about her life after politics? The headline of her one-on-one interview with Vogue underscores this feeling, ‘the last woman standing’…it sounds like a ‘best of’ album, or the singer’s final pre-retirement tour.
The times they are a-changing.
A nation in waiting…for whomever comes next.
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