Precarious Path to Polling Day: Conservatives on the Brink
As Election day nears, polls and retrospective voting indicate a grim outlook for Sunak's Government. Is the Conservative Government facing an unprecedented collapse?
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Political wisdom dictates that there are usually swings back to the government as election day draws near, but is it true this time? Thursday 4 July, election day is rapidly approaching, and the data does not make for comfortable reading for Conservatives.
‘The only poll which matters is the one on polling day’ has been often repeated this election cycle, ad nauseam. And while it is undoubtedly true in a simplistic sense, nevertheless psephology - the statistical study of elections and trends in voting - should not be lightly dismissed.
Polls provide useful insights into prevailing public attitudes, sentiments as a snapshot at a given moment in time. But smart politics watchers ought to also seek to combine them with voters actual lived experiences. In the business this is known as ‘retrospective voting’.
Put simply ‘retrospective voting’ is the notion in political science maintaining that voters make decisions in an election by reflecting on the performance of the governing party. Specifically - as the legendary Democrat party political strategist James Carville put it - ‘it’s the economy, stupid’. Voters on polling day pull the curtain closed on the voting booth, and reflect on the performance of the governing party pertaining to the economy.
If the economy is doing well, the voters will choose to vote in favour of the party in power. If the economic performance is poor, they will vote for a change. Simple, logical and often why governments with a good economic record always ask the electorate ‘do you feel richer now than you did four years ago?’
Naturally there are other theories, each with their own slice of truth. Prospective voting is holds that voters make choices based on predictions of how candidates will perform in the future years. Party-line voting maintains that the voter consistently chooses candidates from their same party (tribalism, or as James O’Brien put it ‘footballification’ of politics). Finally there are those psephologist who prefer rational choice voting theory; where voters base voting decisions on whether their vote is likely to be influential it the eventual outcome.
Any honest analysis of politics during an election therefore would combine polling data with one (or more than one) of these theories about how voters actually reach their decision. Personally, I prefer ‘retrospective voting’, not least since tribal loyalties to any given party has declined sharply in the UK over recent decades as voters have become more promiscuous.
Unfortunately for the current incumbent Conservative government in London, if we apply this to the unfolding election, it does not augur well for them.
Sunak’s failing grade
As we approach electoral D-Day, Rishi Sunak has failed to turn around voter perceptions that he has failed on key priorities.
Whether it is reducing inflation, encouraging economic growth or reducing the national debt, the Prime Ministers numbers have been incrementally worsening.
So, the first point to keep in mind as we try and predict what might happen on election day is to keep in mind that voters believe this Prime Minister has been failing on key economic pledges and priorities. As the voters engage in retrospective voting, they do not have a positive image of this leader’s record on the economy.
But worse is to come. The polling also tells us that there is a scarcity of economic optimism in the country at large. If pressed to find something by way of positivity for the Tories, I’d point out that while voters remain economically pessimistic, they’re not quite as down-in-the-dumps as in summer 2022.
No sign of the bounce-back
Elections often create an incentive structure for political commentators to engage in hyperbolic antics, but this is not the case for me here. I simply do not need to exaggerate. The data speaks for itself, and it ought to alarm Conservatives as we’re days out from voting day.
Orthodoxy dictates that voter volatility means the nearer to voting day we get, the more the difference between the two main parties narrow.
This concept of ‘bounce back’ can be seen to be present in most if not all UK elections since the war. Swing back can be seen for both Labour and Conservatives most notably in the 2010, 2015 and 2019 elections (although not in 2017).
To illustrate this phenomenon we can plot the polling lead enjoyed by the governing party over its opposition across past elections. When we do it’s clear that there is usually (but not always) a trend where falling support occurs in the early period of the election period, followed by rising support as elections draws nearer.
But when you look at this, you will notice there is no sign of this occurring this time round. This should seriously concern the incumbent government.
Conclusions
Ultimately it is a fools game to predict the future path of public opinion. ‘Events, dear boy, events’ as Harold MacMillan aptly put it has the power to change everything. I recall after the 2021 Hartlepool by-election saw everyone writing off Labour’s chances. But who could have foreseen the tawdry sight of Boris Johnson’s administration partying through the pandemic? Or that the Tories would follow that shameful episode up with the idiocy of Liz Truss? Back in 2021 most pundits were still writing columns about Labour’s return to power being a decade-long modernising project akin to Kinnock-Mandelson-Blair-Brown.
Today Labour is revitalised, reenergised and has a spring in its step. Meanwhile Conservative fortunes could scarcely be worse.
But one thing is clear from the data, the electorate have proven themselves stubbornly resistant to all set-piece events designed to narrow the Labour lead. Rishi Sunak has proven himself unable to turn matters around.
And if I am correct, and voters do engage in retrospective voting, the writing could very well be on the wall for this Conservative administration.
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